Tuesday, June 6, 2017

AV#162 - Higher graduation rates in Colorado - fake news

“Colorado graduation rates reach highest marks since 2010…”
 (CDE News Release, Jan. 19, 2017)
“The real goal is not just to graduate more young people, but to keep more young people on the path to success in adulthood. Giving false diplomas or passing students who aren’t ready helps no one.”[i] (John Gomperts, president and CEO of America’s Promise Alliance, May 2016)

I stand and cheer for our 2017 high school graduates on their way to college!  Congratulations Ava (CU-Boulder), Adwoa (Wake Forest), Betty (George Washington), Jonas (Harvard), Leo (Colorado College), Miriam (CSU-Ft. Collins)—among others.  College ready?  No question.

But we must question what percentage of this year’s roughly 50,000 Colorado high school graduates are college-ready, or have demonstrated a certain level of competency in reading, writing, and math.  My text this time is the just released Legislative Report on Developmental Education for the High School Class of 2015 (May 2017), from the Colorado Department of Higher Education.  (Highlights, Addendum A.) Read it and I think you too will find it impossible to cheer for the happy talk of higher graduation rates. Such as:

·         The national graduation rate is “at an all-time high of 83.2 percent” (Education Week, May 10, 2017).
·         The Colorado Department of Education states the four-year graduation rate shows “a marked increase in the statewide graduation rate with 78.9 percent of the students in the class of 2016 graduating within four years of entering ninth grade”… and an increase of “6.5 percentage points since 2010.” News Release, Jan. 19, 2017, http://www.cde.state.co.us/communications/20170119graduationrelease).
·         Denver Public Schools began the decade with an on-time graduation rate of just over 50% (51.8% in 2010).  Nothing but progress of late: 62.8% in 2014, 64.8% in 2015, 67.2% in 2016.

Solid data, right?  I doubt it. Such claims are a type of fake news.

Remedial rate – Colorado grads  entering Colorado colleges[ii]
2013
34.2%
2014
35.4%
2015
36.1%
Why?  Because they suggest a higher percentage of students each year are achieving a certain academic standard.  But as a high school diploma, in our state anyway, says little about graduating with the knowledge and skills that indicate college-readiness, a greater percentage graduating can also mean—see box—a higher percentage require remedial classes.     
         
Can we celebrate a higher graduation rate in May at a Denver high school—when, in August, an astonishingly high percentage of its graduates are not seen as college ready for English or math classes, or both—requiring remedial course work before they are eligible for college-credit classes?
Consider a Chalkbeat Colorado piece on the 2015 results:

DPS celebrated its gains Thursday by highlighting the Denver Center for International Studies, which earned a 92.9 percent graduation rate.  [Addendum B has this same figure.]
“It’s not just that they graduate, but that they are successful when they leave,” said school principal Theresa Mccorquodale.
Mccorquodale cited a drop in remediation rates for her graduates.

Some drop: According to the Legislative Report, the remediation rate for DCIS students entering a Colorado college was 53.1% in 2014, and 51.4% (19 of 37 students) in 2015.   (See details for this and for paragraphs below, in Addendum B: DPS: CLASS OF 2015 - ACT, GRAD RATE, and REMEDIATION RATE.)

That same year Bruce Randolph High reported a graduation rate of 79%--even better than the state average!, and a big bounce from 62.6% the year before.  And yet for the fall of 2015, the Legislative Report showed 46.2% of Randolph’s graduating class entering a Colorado college needed a remedial class, a rate 10% higher than the state average (36.1%) for remediation that year. 

Abraham Lincoln High may have been proud to show a graduation rate of 77.3% (266 out of 344 students) in 2015, also a terrific jump from two years before (64.7%).  But the Colorado Department of Higher Education’s remediation figures show that nearly two-thirds (59 out of 90) of Lincoln’s 2015 graduates required remedial classes when entering a Colorado college that fall. 

“ACT scores show a smaller share of students are ‘college-ready’”[iii]  Washington Post, Aug. 24, 2016
DPS puts together a different tally for remediation figures than DHE.  (See its report for the class of 2014-15[iv]. See also Chalkbeat Colorado’s explanation of Denver’s approach, May 2016.[v]) DPS will challenge the state’s numbers, perhaps rightly. But for a three-year picture, and state-wide comparisons, the Legislative Report is what we have.   
                 
And we have ACT scores too. Let’s look at the 2015 class at Randolph and Lincoln.  When students there took the ACT as juniors in 2014, they had an average score of 16.4 at Randolph and 16.0 at Lincoln.  Such low scores make it likely that of those who do go on, a large number will not be college ready. 

In other words, the (high) remediation rates and the (low) ACT scores seem consistent.  Together they force us to be skeptical of “encouraging” graduation rates at such schools.

Remedial rate–2015 Colorado grads entering Colorado colleges
Westminster 50
71.6
Adams 14
69.5
Sheridan
55.6
Pueblo City 60
54.9
Mapleton
53.5
Greeley
53.1
Aurora
48.7
DPS
45.4
Of course this is more than a DPS story.  When Alameda International shows a graduation rate (92.9%) nearly as impressive as two well-regarded Jeffco high schools, Evergreen (95.8%) and Ralston Valley (95.2%), one might cheer.  But then you note Alameda’s remediation rate of 60%, compared to less than 15% for Evergreen and Ralston graduates.  Even within a district, a high school diploma can have a profoundly different meaning. (See details in Addendum C: 6 other metro area school districts.)


Adams City High shows better graduation rates of late: from 67.8% in 2013, up to 79% in 2016.  But DHE’s most recent numbers also show rising remediation rates for Adams City graduates: 2013: 62.3%; 2014: 64.1%; 2015: 68.8%.  (The State Board of Education will soon take a final look at Adams 14’s turnaround plan. Please note that 68.8%.)

Sheridan High School (SHS) boasted an increased graduation figure of 30% points from 2013 (60%) to 2015 (90.1%).  One might wish to say: terrific–64 out of 71 SHS seniors earned a high school diploma that spring.  But the DHE report shows that, in the fall of 2015, 10 of the 18 graduates (55%) of the district’s two high schools—Sheridan High and SOAR Academy (an alternative school)—required a remedial class when they entered a Colorado college.

Again, in a state with no graduation test, the closest we have to a “final assessment” for the entire class of 2015 would be its performance on the ACT taken junior year.  At Sheridan High, it was 15.9; at Adams City High, 16.1.  A year later, most seniors in these schools had the grades and credits to earn a degree.  In such cases, what is the value of that degree? (See details on Sheridan High in Addendum D.)

A recent Education Week article reported on a study that addressed the skepticism about the upbeat stories on grad rates: “Is the High School Graduation Rate Inflated? No, Study Says.”
Watered-down graduation requirements, mistaken calculations, and push-outs of unsuccessful students may have falsely boosted high school graduation rates in a few states, but are not widespread enough to have inflated the national graduation rate, which is at an all-time high of 83.2 percent, according to a new study.[vi] 
Strange to see not one mention in the article of remediation rates.  It does comment:
If states were lowering standards for diplomas, the report says, there would likely be declines in scores on tests such as the ACT and the SAT, and Advanced Placement exams.

Much here updates the argument I made in
I simply point out the paradox of seeing schools where ACT scores remain terribly low as graduation rates rise.                                                                                     
Not inflated?  Seriously?

Some will say we have not done enough to match a high school diploma with the knowledge and skills required to take college-level classes, and that we should not fault the K-12 system for that failure.  And I appreciate why many question the way colleges determine “readiness”—such as the way most students ended up in my remedial reading classes at Arapahoe Community College—by taking the Accuplacer, a 20-question multiple choice test in English.[vii]

Nevertheless, the data available should compel us to stop celebrating higher graduation rates as if they tell us something important about what our students have learned. 

You can say it’s too cute to call it fake news. 

I would answer: it is not honest of us to tell ourselves and our community that higher graduation rates mean our schools are improving and our students are making academic progress.  It is clearly dishonest if we are telling students their degree means something they soon find out is untrue. 

What is true—can we please admit this?—is that a high school diploma in our state, and perhaps in many others as well, says little about our students’ academic skills or whether they are ready for college.

Another View is a newsletter by Peter Huidekoper Jr.  Comments are welcome. 303-757-1225 - peterhdkpr@gmail.com


Addendum A

LEGISLATIVE REPORT ON DEVELOPMENTAL EDUCATION FOR THE HIGH SCHOOL CLASS OF 2015

Highlights from Academic Year 2015-16

1. Overall, the percentage of the 2015 high school graduates placed into developmental education
in at least one subject was 36.1 percent, a slight increase from the previous year of 35.4 percent.

2. Of the high school graduates who matriculated to college in Colorado, 7,838 students were placed
into developmental education (an increase of 366 students from last year).

3. The percentage of female college students placed into developmental education was 37.9
percent, a slight decrease from last year. The percentage of male college students placed into
developmental education was 34 percent, a slight increase from last year.

4. At two-year institutions, 79.1 percent of African American students were placed into
developmental education. At four-year institutions, 49.3 percent of African American students
were placed into developmental education. Both rates have decreased compared to last year.

5. At two-year institutions, 71.4 percent of Hispanic students placed into developmental education
(a slight increase compared to last year). At four-year institutions, the rate of Hispanic students
placed into developmental education is unchanged from last year at 39 percent.

6. Of Free and Reduced Lunch (FRL) participants, 53.6 percent were placed into developmental
education which represents a slight increase compared to last year (53.4 percent last year). Of
non-FRL students, 30.6 percent were placed into developmental education (31.4 percent last year).

7. When examining developmental education by subject, students almost equally required support
in mathematics and English.

8. For the third year, students placed into developmental education had higher first year retention
rates than non-developmental education students at community colleges.

9. At the four-year level, the retention rate for students not placed into developmental education
was 77.8 percent, compared to 66.3 percent for those placed into developmental education.
Retention rates have increased for both groups of students compared to last year (76.7 percent
and 61.4 percent respectively).

10. More than 63 percent of all developmental education courses were completed successfully, a 0.6
percent increase from the previous year.

11. The estimated cost to the state and estimated tuition cost to all college students enrolled in
developmental education courses is approximately $29.6 million in FY2015-16. This is a $9.7
million dollar savings from last year due to students taking fewer developmental courses and
fewer courses being offered.

2015 High School Graduating Cohort: 53,128
Enrolled in an Out-of-State College: 7,119
Enrolled in Colorado Public College: 22,923



Addendum B 

DPS - CLASS OF 2015 - ACT, GRAD RATE, and REMEDIATION RATE

DENVER PUBLIC SCHOOLS
2014 – ACT*
juniors
2015 grad rate**  % - total # seniors
2015 remediation rate*** % - entering college
Denver School of Science & Technology-Stapleton
24.5
81.9    105
9.3      5/54
DSST: Green Valley Ranch
23.2
85.4      96
13.5      7/52
Denver School of the Arts
23.4
98.1      158
29.5    18/61
East
21.9
89.6    616
35.8    82/229
George Washington
21
82.6     270
32.6    30/92
Denver Center for International Studies
21.1
92.9      85
Thomas Jefferson
19.5
83.5    212
44.1   37/84
KIPP Denver Collegiate
19.2
83.5     79
40.5   17/42
College ready?
John Kennedy
17.3
76.7     279
52.5    52 /99
South
17.3
78.6     238
43.6    41/94
Martin Luther King Early College
17.1
70      150
58.6    34/58
DCIS at Montbello
17.1
86.7    90
71.8    28/39
High Tech
16.9
77.8      81
60      12/20
North
16.9
70.9    134
40      18/45
Southwest Early College
16.4
44.1     59
41.2      7/17
Bruce Randolph H.S. (6-12)
16.4
79      81
46.2   18/39
Manual H.S.
16.1
52.7     74
77.8   14/18
Abraham Lincoln
16
77.3    344
DPS Average
18.4   
taken by 4,071 students
64.8
45.4    626/1,378
STATE
20.3
taken by 54,512 students
77.3
36.1



Addendum C – College ready?

7 other metro area school districts - CLASS OF 2015 - ACT, GRAD RATE, and REMEDIATION RATE


2014 – ACT*
juniors
2015 grad rate** % - total # seniors
2015 remediation rate *** % - entering college
10 metro area high schools



Mapleton Expeditionary School of the Arts (MAPLETON)                    
17.4
87.3      71
65.5     19/29
Northglenn High (ADAMS 12)
17.4
83.8       351
61.9     78/126
Hinkley H.S. (AURORA PUBLIC SCHOOLS)
17.0
60.3     521
48.6    67/138
Gateway H.S. (AURORA PUBLIC SCHOOLS)
16.8
55.9        397
61.8     47/76 
16.5
92.9      170
60.5     26/43  
Westminster H.S. (WESTMINSTER)
16.2
66.2     568
70.9     90/127 
Adams City High School (ADAMS 14)
16.1
73     366
68.8     53/77
Jefferson High School (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
16.1
64.4      118
65        13/20
Sheridan H.S. (SHERIDAN)
15.9
90.1     71
55     10/18*
Aurora Central H.S. (AURORA PUBLIC SCHOOLS)
15.2
44.3      479
70.3        52/74
STATE
20.3
77.3      61,790
36.1%
****Not available for the school; these are the numbers for the entire district (both schools) – from the Legislative Report, above.


Addendum D – Sheridan High School

How can ACT scores decline, even as grad rates appear “strong”?


ACT*
juniors
  grad rate** % -
# grads/total senior class
remediation rate ***
Graduating class of 2013
16.7 (2012)
60%        42/70
47.4%
Graduating class of 2014                   
16.4 (2013)
82.7%      62/75
44.7%
Graduating class of 2015
15.9 (2014)
90.1%      64/71
55% for district****
Graduating class of 2016
15.5 (2015)
84.9%       62/73
N.A. yet

****Not available for the school; these are the numbers for the entire district (both schools) – from the Legislative Report, above.