Another View: AV#239 follow-up - Conflicting messages: PSAT scores fall, graduation rates rise

"In Colorado, a high school diploma is not a reflection of academic achievement." AV#239

More evidence

A. A superintendent (or is it the school board?) sets a goal for the district: higher graduation rates.

B. But what if test scores indicate that most of its high school sophomores and juniors are not on track to “demonstrate Postsecondary and Workforce Readiness (PWR) in Reading, Writing and Communicating, and Mathematics” (Colorado Graduation Guidelines[i]) by the time they graduate?

Do we pursue A and close our eyes to B?

What if the former improve (the school “celebrates” higher grad rates) while the latter, the Reading, Writing, and Math assessments that claim to provide a meaningful measure of college readiness, are flat, or in decline—even 100 points below the state average? Can we make sense of the mixed message?

Previously I have used College Board results, as well as college remediation rates for recent high school graduates, to explain why ever-rising graduation rates ring hollow. Here I stick with the PSAT (Preliminary Scholastic Aptitude Test) taken by 10^th graders. All Pre-COVID data: 2017-2019. We insist our 10^th graders take this test on Reading, Writing and Language, and Math[ii], because we think it has value. If they do—see the PSAT scores here—we must ask how so many schools can report such “impressive” grad rates.

Addenda - 2021 Graduation results:

Addendum A – APS and Pueblo 60; Addendum B -District 27J; Addenda C & D - Greeley 6.

A brief summary of AV#239

AV#239 showed the declining PSAT scores in Pueblo 60 from 2017 (877) to 2019 (850). That 850 was 88 points below the state average in 2019. And yet, strangely, the superintendent congratulated the district for its rising graduation rates—exceeding the state average for three years in a row.

AV#239 showed the declining PSAT scores at Aurora West College Preparatory Academy in APS from 2017 (864) to 2019 (824). That 824 was 114 points below the state average. Never mind: Aurora West reported a remarkable (believable?) feat, a graduation rate of 100%, three years running no less, exceeding the state average by over 18%. UPDATE: AWCPA 2021 graduation rate “fell”—to 97.7%

Finally, AV#239 showed declining PSAT scores at Brighton High in District 27J, from 2017 (897) to 2019 (874). A score of 874 was 64 points below the state average that year. And yet graduation rates continued to rise. By 2020 graduation rates were 89%, over 7 points above the state average.

UPDATE: 2021 data–Brighton High grad rates climb again, 90.1%, over 8 points above the state average.

For District 27J, PSAT scores fell between 2017-2019; two years later, grad rates kept rising: 84.1 to 88.2

Getting better all the time

Given the chaos of the 2020-21 school year, few were surprised last month when CDE announced a decline in graduating rates across the state. This led, happily, in my view, to fewer districts “celebrating” higher grad rates. This year, I have seen no statements on the lower rates from the superintendents of Aurora Public Schools or Pueblo 60. (Addendum A shows the decline in their graduation rates from 2020 to 2021). District 27J, on the other hand, continued its “good news” narrative. (Addendum B)

Greeley 6 too claimed success. As in District 27J, we hear of “four straight years of higher graduation rates” (Addendum C). Colorado Chalkbeat spoke with Superintendent Dr. Deirdre Pilch (Addendum D). One can laud the effort but still question the results. I look forward to the day when the media asks a superintendent to explain how he or she defines what it means to earn a high school diploma in our state. A close look at Greeley high schools reveals the contradictions.

When 7 of the district’s 8 high schools all have a graduation rate over 90%, it would be extremely impressive—if seniors at all seven schools were meeting our 12^th grade state standards.

	2019	2020	2021	Change, 2019 to 2021
State	81.1	81.9	81.7	+.6
District – Greeley 6	81.7	82.0	84.1	+2.4
Early College Academy	100	100	100	-	All 7 high schools with grad rates over 90% in 2021
Frontier Academy H.S.	97.6	100	98.8	+1.2
Union Colony Preparatory School	86.2	90.0	100	+13.8
University Schools	100	99.3	97.4	-2.6
Greeley Central H.S.	91.7	87.2	90.4	-1.3
Greeley West H.S.	82.2	88.1	91.0	+8.8
Northridge H.S.	84.6	89.7	93.1	+8.5

2021 data - https://co.chalkbeat.org/2022/1/11/22878772/colorado-pandemic-graduation-rates-class-2021

2019, and 2020 data - https://co.chalkbeat.org/2021/1/12/22226071/colorado-graduation-rates-2020

However, their respective PSAT scores in 2019, indicates a dramatic difference in the level of academic achievement of their graduates—what PSAT (see next page) calls their “college readiness.”

PSAT scores by 10^th graders in 2019 (graduating class of 2021)

	2019	Compared to state average
STATE	938*
*7 district high schools (includes 3 charter schools)**
Frontier Academy H.S.*	978*	+40 pts
Early College Academy	977	+39 pts
Union Colony Preparatory School*	940*	+2 pts
University Schools*	930*	-8 pts
Average of these 4	956
DISTRICT - Greeley 6	870*	-68 pts
Greeley West H.S.	865	-73 pts
Northridge H.S.	843*	-95 pts
Greeley Central H.S.	841*	-97 pts
Average of these 3	850

*In each case, lower than its PSAT score in 2017, by the class that graduated in 2019.

Over a 100-point difference in the average PSAT scores for sophomores at these schools. How likely is it that most students who perform so poorly late in 10^th grade will be able to make up ground during their junior and senior year in order to demonstrate the knowledge and skills we expect of high school graduates? And yet somehow these schools and their districts insist on telling us that these same students graduated at a rate over 90%, well above the state average. How can this be, unless we accept that academic achievement, “what students know or can do” (Colorado Graduation Guidelines[iii]), has no correlation to graduation rates? But will anyone admit to that?

You might respond by saying that you do not believe the results of the PSAT test. Or that the College Board has set its mark “too high” for grade level scores (see below). But if so, why use this test?

Overview – 4 districts and 12 schools featured in #239 and in this follow-up

First two columns are from the College Board, “Understanding PSAT scores 2019.” … the PSAT™ is designed to measure the skills and knowledge that current research shows are essential for college and career readiness and success.”[iv] Second two columns, PSAT 2019 scores & 2021 grad rates.

Percentiles for Total Scores Huge differences in PSAT scores But all graduate over 90%

Percent	PSAT/NMSQT* & PSAT 10 USER	PSAT scores in 2019 in Colorado 16 districts and schools	CDE reports high graduation rates in 2021 (95.9% or better) at these five high schools.
1520	99%
1200	92%
1000	66%	Eagle Ridge Academy (27J) - 988 Frontier Academy (Greeley 6) - 978 Early College Academy (Greeley 6) - 977
940	54%	Union Colony Prep (Greeley 6) – 940 State of Colorado – average score 938 University Schools (Greeley 6) - 930
[910 - What the College Board considers grade level on PSAT 10]
900	47%	District 27J - 890 Prairie View (27J) – 887 Brighton H.S. (27J) – 874 District - Greeley 6 – 870 Greeley West (Greeley 6) – 865 District - Pueblo 60 - 850 Northridge H.S. (Greeley 6) - 843 Greeley Central (Greeley 6) – 841 District - Aurora Public Schools - 837 Central H.S. (Pueblo 60) – 831 Aurora West College Prep (APS) – 824	CDE reports high graduation rates in 2021 (90% or better, well above the state average of 81.7) at these five high schools. In 2019, the same class had PSAT scores well below the state average when in 10^th grade. College Board places these scores in the bottom 50%.
870	41%
840	34%		CDE reports impressive graduation rates, over 90%, at these two high schools in 2021. Pueblo 60’s Central H.S: 92.5%. Aurora West in APS: 97.7%. The College Board places these scores far below expectations for grade 10.

*National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test

In short, graduation rates over 90% sounds terrific, but signify … nothing. Not when we see the disparity of what graduates in one district like Greeley 6, and similarly across our state, know and are able to do.

When our students walk across the stage to receive their high school diploma, we would like to say we are celebrating their academic achievement. As it stands now, all the data I have gathered about PSAT, SAT, and remedial education tells me cannot say that.

Isn’t it time to clarify what it means to earn a high school degree in Colorado?

Addendum A – Graduation results in APS and Pueblo 60

Aurora Public Schools – Low graduation rates for its three high schools on Priority Improvement or Turnaround* are unsurprising. Just one of many challenges they face. In contrast, though, see Pueblo 60’s Central High—also on Priority Improvement—below.

	2020	2021	Change from 2020 to 2021
State	81.9	81.7	-.2
District	79.0	76.2	-2.8
ACHS*	72.6	67.8	-4.8
Aurora West College Prep**	100	97.7	-2.3
Gateway*	73.1	66.6	-6.5
Hinkley*	73	70	-3.0
Rangeview H.S.	85.3	85.9	+.6
Vista Peak 9-12 Prep	85.1	78.8	-6.3

**Page 1 addressed the anomaly of a school like Aurora West, with such high graduation rates—just a small drop from 2020 to 2021, while—as stated earlier—as sophomores that class of 2021 averaged a score of 824 on the PSAT. The College Board puts that score in the bottom third for the country (page 3).

Pueblo 60

	2020	2021	Change from 2020 to 2021
State	81.9	81.7	-.2
District	82.6	78.7	-3.9
Centennial H.S.	85.7	85.5	-.2
Central H.S.*	94.2	92.5	-1.7
Chavez/Huerta K-12 Prep	89.8	86.7	-3.1
East H. S.	83.5	78.9	-4.6
South H. S.	83.7	84.1	+.4

*Central High School – Year 5 on Priority Improvement

AV#239 devoted a page examining Central High’s low PSAT and SAT scores. I noted how strange it seems to have a school in Year 5 on the accountability clock, with SAT scores 200 points below those of the state’s most highly regarded high schools—exceeding them with its impressive graduation rate.

2021 graduation results for Central High again look strong. I trust you can see that this says little about the academic performance of Central’s students. Two years earlier, the College Board put Central’s 2019 PSAT results (for this same 2021 graduation class) in the bottom third (page 3) for the country. An 831 average placed their students 107 points below the Colorado average of 938. Hard to believe most of them were “college ready” two years later.

Addendum B - Graduation results in District 27J

District 27J – three schools with graduation rates over 90%

	2019	2020	2021	Change over 2 years
State	81.1	81.9	81.7	+.6
District	84.1	86.2	88.2	+4.7
Brighton High*	88.2	88.9	90.1	+1.9
Eagle Ridge H.S.	96.3	94.0	95.9	-.4
Prairie View H.S.	89.5	90.0	92.1	+2.6

For District 27J, PSAT scores fell from 947 in 2017 to 938 in 2019. Two years later, grad rates rose for these same classes. Its 88.2% grad rate in 2021 placed it 6.5 percentage points above the state average

From the District 27J website:

Graduation rate increases for fourth straight year

(Bold mine)

The communities in 27J Schools are celebrating today after they learned their district posted its fourth consecutive year of increases in its district graduation rate. It went up 2 percent more this year bringing it to an all-time high of 88.2 percent.

“This is proof positive that our efforts to keep kids in school and on track to graduate on time are working,” 27J Schools Superintendent Chris Fiedler said. “Earning that high school diploma is critical to any student’s success whether they decide to go to college, to a trade school or immediately enter the workforce. It’s the key to more and better opportunities.”

“We’re doing a much better job of helping students find skills and subjects that really interest them and linking them to STEM and technical education. In those programs, students can do internships in the community and get hands-on training to explore their interests and see how they can make a career out of what they truly like to do,” 27J Schools Chief Academic Officer Will Pierce said. “That’s a powerful incentive to stay in school when you see career options you’d really enjoy.”

Of the Adams County districts located in the metro area, 27J Schools again has the highest graduation rate for the third consecutive year. …

Brighton High School, Eagle Ridge Academy and Prairie View High School earned graduation rates of more than 90 percent. These schools plus the district’s alternative high school, Innovations and Options, all saw improvement over last year’s graduation rate. The district’s newest high school, Riverdale Ridge, posted its first graduation rate at 93.8 percent this year.

27J Schools’ graduation rate now has exceeded the state average for four consecutive years.

“Improving a large system like ours takes a lot of teamwork and dedication. I have to thank the Class of 2021, their parents and all of Team 27J for this historic accomplishment,” Fiedler said. “This is the highest graduation rate in the district’s history!”

https://www.sd27j.org/site/default.aspx?PageType=3&DomainID=4&ModuleInstanceID=17416&ViewID=6446EE88-D30C-497E-9316-3F8874B3E108&RenderLoc=0&FlexDataID=36392&PageID=1

Addendum C – Greeley 6 - From the District 6 website

DISTRICT 6 GRADUATION RATE EXCEEDS STATE AVERAGE

Posted by GIZEH MARTINEZ on 1/11/2022

(Bold mine)

The on-time graduation rate for Greeley-Evans School District 6 seniors jumped last year, exceeding the state average by nearly three percentage points.

Graduation rates for Colorado school districts were released by the Colorado Department of Education today, and for the fourth year in a row, Greeley-Evans School District 6 has seen an increase in its on-time graduation rates.

The 2021 on-time graduation rate for District 6 is 84.1 percent, exceeding the state average of 81.7 percent. The completion rate for District 6 – which includes students who take longer than four years to graduate – is 85.8 percent. A total of 1,264 students graduated from District 6 high schools in 2021.

The 2021 graduation rate shows improvement over the 2020 graduation rate of 82 percent and is a significant increase over the 2017 graduation rate of 78.7 percent.

“This is reflective of the work of our strategic plan. Our focus on personalized learning, as well as career and college readiness, is really paying off for the students in District 6,” said Superintendent Dr. Deirdre Pilch. “The intentional work of our staff to make sure every student has a plan for high school graduation and beyond is showing in these numbers. Our students are working hard to reach their goals with the support of our hardworking staff. I am very proud of this work.”

“This has to continue to be our focus moving forward,” Dr. Pilch said. “Every student can and should graduate on time. We just need to ensure they have the right support and path to cross the finish line.”

https://www.greeleyschools.org/domain/423

Addendum D – Greeley 6 - From Chalkbeat Colorado

“In northern Colorado, the Greeley school district managed to continue its upward trend. This year, the district had a graduation rate of 84.1%, up from 82% in 2020, and 81.7% in 2019.

“Deirdre Pilch, the Greeley superintendent, said that increasing graduation rates has been one of her main priorities since she became superintendent in 2015. It’s part of a strategic plan that pre-pandemic included close monitoring of students from their first year of high school. Students who are at high risk of not graduating on time are actually identified in middle school so they can receive additional support.

During the pandemic, the Greeley district that serves nearly 22,000 students — including 70% students of color, and about 66% students who qualify for subsidized lunches, a measure of poverty — met mostly in person, though high school students had hybrid schedules with just two days per week of in-person learning during more than half of the year.

To keep quarantines to a minimum, the district also switched to a quarter system where high school students only took four classes at a time. And groups of students who had special needs, or those who were learning English as a second language, had more in-person instruction throughout the year.

The spring 2021 semester ended with all students in person five days a week.

“It absolutely had to make a difference,” Pilch said. “Teachers and staff were saying, ‘we need our kids every day, we got to have them every day.’ There’s no question you’re seeing that in this data.”

https://co.chalkbeat.org/2022/1/11/22878772/colorado-pandemic-graduation-rates-class-2021

Endnotes

[i] Colorado Graduation Gudelines

https://www.cde.state.co.us/postsecondary/graduationguidelines

“In order to graduate from high school, students choose from a Menu of Options - adopted at the local school board level - to demonstrate Postsecondary and Workforce Readiness (PWR) in Reading, Writing and Communicating, and Mathematics.”

Another View

Tuesday, February 15, 2022

AV#239 follow-up - Conflicting messages: PSAT scores fall, graduation rates rise

https://co.chalkbeat.org/2022/1/11/22878772/colorado-pandemic-graduation-rates-class-2021

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