Monday, June 3, 2024

AV #272 - Recent student achievement results tell us the glass is not half-full

 

                          Does the public know this? Do parents and students know? Why the disconnect?

    Writing in Education Next this spring, James A. Peyser, secretary of education in Massachusetts from 2015-2022, and before that chair of its state board, gave this dire overview:


… in the wake of Covid-19 the country is facing an unprecedented education crisis that has produced the most precipitous decline in academic achievement we’ve ever seen, which is likely to reverberate through the economy for years to come.[i]  


“The Startling Evidence on Learning Loss Is In,” by the Editorial Board, The New York Times, Nov. 18, 2023

      Hyperbole? Too bleak? (Worth noting: this assessment comes from a state leader where public schools are often considered the best in the country.[ii])

   Most Coloradans would reject Peyser’s statement as too extreme. It’s not that bad – not here!  

   How does the Colorado Department of Education tell our story? Its press release last August announcing spring 2023 test results was even-handed. 

“News Release - State assessment results show some improvements, challenges remain due to lost learning opportunities during the pandemic.” [iii]

   Comments from Commissioner Susana Cordova were also balanced. She began: “At the state level, we are beginning to see small increases in performance, which gives me optimism.” On a less sanguine note, she spoke of our persistent “disparities.”

“Unfortunately, large gaps remain between student groups, which reaffirms my commitment to continue the hard work of eradicating the long-standing disparities in opportunity and achievement. I see these scores as a continued call to action to ensure our students and educators have the support they need to meet our state standards.”

   Still, the achievement results in that press release—see Addendum A—showed a decline in 17 out of 18 categories, from 2019 to 2023. I repeat, a decline in 17 out of 18 categories. (It is enormously helpful when the state’s leading institutions are willing to highlight this trend. As one example, see the 2023 Annual Report from the Gates Family Foundation.[iv])

   

   When 2024 results for our students become available late this summer, I imagine some will cheer if we return to our 2019 level. Lest we forget: that would mean the majority of students in grades 3-8 still not meeting our expectations in literacy and math. Keep this in mind, too: in our high schools, in 2023, over 40% of juniors (22,998 students) did not meet expectations on our reading/writing assessment, and over 60% (36,307 students) did not meet expectations in math. My guess is most of them, as seniors, received their high school diploma in late May. This hints at a point I return to (see page 3): the disconnect between achievement and graduation rates.   

   

   Harsh facts of this kind were critical to my reading report (February 2024) focused on student performance in Colorado AFTER third grade.[v] The data revealed the large percentage of students

in grades 4-11 who score well below Meeting Expectations on our state assessments in literacy. A similar report on math achievement in Colorado would only be more alarming. I cannot be even-handed about this.

   That reading report was part of Another View’s challenge to what I call the “glass-half full argument” on student performance. I believe many in Colorado understate the depth of the problem facing our schools. I hear a tired shrug: Here we are again. Little change. So it goes.

    

   AV #272 presents concerns about public education, post-COVID, across the country. I see their relevance to Colorado. Do you? I hope they deepen our anxiety. I hope they lead us to speak and act with greater urgency. Results are not satisfactory. Even if we try to tell ourselves otherwise.

 

   “Not seeing the full academic picture” – Self-deception; graduation AND grade inflation 


·       What do parents and the public know about our students’ achievement?

·       What do K-8 students understand about their skills and their progress?

·       How well do high school students assess their college readiness? What should they know?

·       What stands in the way of a greater reckoning with how our students actually perform? 


“New Data Find Nearly Nine in 10 Parents Say Their Child Is at or Above Grade Level

     in Reading and Math, Despite Historic Declines”

“Awareness gap sidelines parents in supporting their child’s learning.”[vi] (Nov. 15, 2023)

   “A new report from Gallup and Learning Heroes, ‘B-flation: How Good Grades Can Sideline Parents,’ finds that while nearly eight in 10 U.S. parents (79%) say their child is receiving mostly B’s or better and almost nine in 10 believe their child is at or above grade level in reading (88%) and math (89%), they may not be seeing the full academic picture. Parents' perceptions of their child’s performance deviate sharply from other measures, including standardized test scores, that suggest less than half of children are performing at grade level….”

  “… some parents don’t have the information needed to understand the full picture … parents most often use in-classroom measures like report cards, feedback from the teacher and in-class tests to get information about their child’s academic performance. Yet, fewer than one in three parents use year-end state standardized test results (21%) or benchmark tests (26%).

   “‘Knowing whether a child is ‘at grade level’ is critically important to supporting them, as parents and teachers who recognize the child is not performing at grade level can take different actions to best advocate for their child’s learning and support them at home,’ said Andrea Malek Ash, research consultant at Gallup. ‘Despite a variety of measures of academic achievement, it can be difficult for parents to answer this question accurately.’”

High schools – Graduation rates do not reveal academic achievement

   For years Another View has shown how graduation rates in Colorado often do not align with test results.[vii] (2023 data in Addendum B: schools with graduation rates above but SAT scores well below the state average. See note to superintendents.) In March Education Week looked at the other college admissions assessment, the ACT, and made a similar point; here the contrast is between test scores and how well students feel about their college readiness.

“High School Students Think They Are Ready For College. But They Aren’t” - “Four in 5 students say they’re academically ready for college. Their test scores say otherwise.”[viii] (March 13, 2024)

    “… students’ college readiness has reached historic lows, according to several metrics—including the lowest scores in 30 years on the ACT and declining scores on the SAT, the two primary standardized tests used for college admissions. And yet, more than 4 in 5 high school seniors report feeling ‘very’ or ‘mostly’ academically prepared for college, according to a 2023 ACT nationwide survey.”                        

   “They’re not, say experts….”

   “‘Fewer students leaving high school are meeting all four college readiness benchmarks [on ACT tests]…,’ said Janet Godwin, CEO of the ACT, referring to English composition, social sciences, algebra, and biology. ‘Our research suggests that students meeting so few of these benchmarks are not going to perform as well in their credit-bearing freshman classes.’”

Up Up and Away  -

A beautiful balloon – or hot air?

CDE News Releases:

  “State's four-year graduation rate increases to 81.1%”[ix] Jan. 14, 2020

  “State’s four-year graduation rate increases to 81.9%”[x] Jan. 12, 2021

  “Statewide four-year graduation rate improves”[xi] Jan. 10, 2023

   “Statewide four-year graduation rate continues to improve”[xii] Jan. 9, 2024

   “The trend of high school students’ declining college readiness, in tandem with their widespread perceived preparedness, may lead to a perfect storm of sorts for countless incoming college freshmen—possibly resulting in immediate bewilderment, followed by frustration or even dropping out of college altogether.”                   

    And as I understand the “Menu of Options” in Colorado’s new graduation guidelines, we now have even less reason to believe a high school diploma demonstrates a graduate is college-ready. In AV #263 and #264 I argued that the guidelines enable districts to lower the bar, and thus allow them to “award” more students a high school degree. A diploma has little to do with having a solid academic foundation.

   If we cannot trust graduation rates, what about grades?

 

High School – Grades do not reveal academic achievement 

   Adding to concerns, the same article’s next section, “Reports of rising grades and loosening academic rigor in high school,” included the ACT’s discovery of higher GPA’s during the pandemic: “the overwhelming majority of high school students - more than 80% - received either an A or B in math, English, social studies and science.”

   The ACT’s Janet Godwin’s commented on “the spike in grade inflation” from 2020-2022: “We think people were trying to be more kind, perhaps.” Godwin herself might be too generous.

   In an Education Next essay subtitled, “Student achievement and merit are losing prospects in the era of ‘everybody wins,’”[xiii] Doug Lemov highlighted the discrepancy. “… national data from the ACT,” he wrote, “shows high school students’ grades rising even as their achievement scores have stagnated or declined.” Four graphs, “Course Grades Rise as ACT Test Scores Fall,” show the gap, from 2016 to 2022, for English, Math, Science, and Social Studies. 

    In late March Education Week examined efforts to rethink how we grade.  

 

“As They Revamp Grading, Districts Try To Improve Consistency, Prevent Inflation” –

“Districts have embraced bold changes to make grading system more consistent, but some say they’ve inflated grades and sent mixed signals.” (March 20, 2024)

 

   This spring a veteran teacher in Colorado told me: "The 50% is nuts. It's not about showing proficiency." She said students can fail three tests, but if they perform well on the 4th test, they can pass the class. "They say they're trying to make this about equity; I don't see how it is equitable."

   This article presented different perspectives. What is best? We read of schools grading missing work as “earning” 50% rather than a zero” (echoing a recent    

policy change in Aurora Public Schools). I am sure Colorado reporters can find schools wrestling with this issue. This passage captures some of the concerns about several proposals.

 

   “… Some teachers and school board members in districts that have considered or adopted changes contend that they have fueled a lack of motivation among students, leaving them unprepared for the realities of college and work, where deadlines come with real consequences.

   “Prohibiting penalties for late work and non-zero grading policies ‘tend to reduce expectations and accountability for students, hamstring teachers’ ability to manage their classrooms and motivate students, and confuse parents and other stakeholders who do not understand what grades have come to signify,’ researchers Meredith Coffey and Adam Tyner of the conservative-leaning Thomas B. Fordham Institute wrote in a Feb. 28 brief.”  


Are tests, then, the most reliable way of assessing achievement?

 

“Colorado survey shows huge lack of support for standardized testing,” The Gazette (May 4, 2023)[xiv]
   If neither graduation rates nor grades reflect student achievement, where are we? I do not see the glass as half-full. Most parents and students, though, seem content – even confident. This may be partly due to how we view our state assessments. My reading report was 99% about assessment scores. I would never say CMAS-PSAT-SAT tests accurately measure what an individual student knows and is able to do—we all have bad days, and we know they’re just a snapshot taken each spring—and yet as a broad picture of how a school, a district, and the state performs, I see their value.  

   Mistrust of our tests can go too far. Given what we see about grades and graduation rates, test scores may be the most reliable measure we have of what our students know and are able to do. To dismiss what the scores reveal plays into the illusion that we're doing fine. 

   Summer – a time to reflect on how well we are serving our students. As I have done here. 

 

Addendum A

From News Release – Colorado Department of Education, Aug. 17, 2023: 

"State assessment results show some improvements, challenges remain due to lost learning opportunities during the pandemic."

 https://www.cde.state.co.us/communications/news-release-state-assessment-results-2023

Includes: 

2023 CMAS Compared to 2022 and 2019

2023 PSAT/SAT Compared to 2022 and 201

                    **

My addition to that report from the state

Regarding that “College Readiness Benchmark,” note CDE’s explanation:

   “The independently determined cut scores for Colorado’s performance level 3 [Met Expectations] matches the College Board’s College and Career Readiness benchmark cut score.”

 At CDE’s “2023 PSAT/SAT District and School Summary Achievement Results.” https://www.cde.state.co.us/assessment/sat-psat-data

 

Based on the College Board’s Career and Readiness Benchmark, the 2023 scores above show that:  

·       59.9% of Colorado’s high school juniors Met Expectations in Reading and Writing.

·       35.2% of Colorado’s high school juniors Met Expectations in Math.

To put it more simply:

·       Roughly 3/5 of our high school juniors Met Expectations in Reading and Writing, and

·       Less than 2/5 of our juniors Met Expectations in Math.

 

Addendum B

A disconnect - High Graduation Rates versus Low SAT Scores

   For these ten schools (among others), we can see a remarkable contrast on the PostSecondary and Workforce Readiness page of the School Performance Framework. For most of them, their SAT math score earns a rating of Does Not Meet, while their graduation rate earns Meets or Exceeds. A clear disconnect between achievement scores and “impressive” graduation rates.

2023 – 10 high schools – High Graduation Rates (12th grade) versus Low SAT Scores (11th grade)

 

 

 

4-year

GRADUATION RATE*

 

SAT- R&W

SAT-MATH

SAT –MATH

Rating****

College Board – College & Career Readiness Benchmarks[xv]

 

480

530

 

Colorado’s Graduation Guideline - “Minimum scores [xvi]

 

470

500

 

STATE

 

83.1

 

506

484

 

 

ABOVE STATE AVERAGE

 

BELOW STATE’S

“MINIMUM SCORES”

School

District

 

 

 

Las Animas H.S.

Las Animas

95.0***

 

467

413

Does Not Meet

Sheridan H.S.

Sheridan

94.6***

 

460

426

Does Not Meet

Central H.S.

Pueblo 60

91.5

 

458

427

Does Not Meet

Brighton High

27J Schools

92.2

 

463

435

Does Not Meet

Aurora West College Preparatory

APS

91.7

 

414

383

Does Not Meet

Greeley West H.S.

Greeley 6

89.9

 

449

441

Approaching

Prairie View H.S.

27J Schools

89.8

 

461

432

Does Not Meet

Dolores Huerta Preparatory H.S.

Pueblo 60

89.1

 

442

426

Does Not Meet

South H.S.

Pueblo 60

87.0

 

464

438

Does Not Meet

Westminster H.S.

Westminster

85.7

 

451

414

Does Not Meet

*From Graduation Statistics, Interactive Graduation Data, CDE, https://www.cde.state.co.us/cdereval/gradratecurrent

**From Colorado SAT and PSAT Data and Results, CDE, https://www.cde.state.co.us/assessment/sat-psat-data

*** Earns a rating of EXCEEDS on Postsecondary and Workforce Readiness on the School Performance Framework.

****From “Official Performance Ratings,” CDE,  https://www.cde.state.co.us/schoolview/frameworks/welcome

 

Most egregious difference: Aurora West College Preparatory (in APS)

Graduation rate - 8.6 % points ABOVE state average

SAT score – Reading/Writing – 92 points BELOW state average

                        Math –                 101 points BELOW state average  

 

Second most egregious difference: Dolores Huerta K-12 Preparatory High School (in Pueblo 60)

Graduation rate – 6 % points ABOVE state average

SAT score – Reading/Writing – 67 points BELOW state average

                        Math –                  63 points BELOW state average  


Note to superintendents

If academics mean anything, what is the message you are sending?

(A repeat/update of AV #239:

 “Superintendents should stop pretending higher graduation rates matter,” November 2021)

27J Schools and Pueblo 60 are Colorado’s largest districts on a four-day week. How these two districts report their progress matters a great deal. Why? Many are eager to see the impact of the shorter week on academic achievement, which is NOT TO BE EQUATED with graduation rates. 

“27J tops Adams County grad rates, still has work to do,” 27J Schools (3/14/2024)[xvii]

 

See District 27J’s Brighton High and Prairie View High, previous page.
   The 27J Schools Class of 2023, in numbers released in January, turned in a graduation rate of 88.1 percent. That rate keeps 27J Schools at the top of the metro-area Adams County school districts.  
   “We’re so proud of our Class of 2023 for its dedication to meeting high graduation standards,” Superintendent Chris Fielder said. “We’ve had a long string of annual increased results. So when we saw we slipped, we were disappointed.”

   "An 88.1 percent graduation rate is absolutely something we celebrate – that’s a lot of students who’ve shown they’re ready for success in college, careers, or the armed services. But our mission is to equip every child for success, and that means we still have work to be done."

   27J also continued to outperform the Colorado state average rate of 81.7 percent.

 

“Pueblo school districts see highest graduation rates since 2020,” Pueblo Chieftain (1/14/2024)[xviii]

   With a four-year graduation rate of 79.8% in 2023, Pueblo School District 60 improved its four-year graduation rate by 3.2%. Like Pueblo D70, Pueblo D60 recorded its highest graduation rate since 2020. Pueblo D60's graduation rate for the 2019-20 school year was 82.6%.

Note the two schools with the highest graduation rates in Pueblo 60: Central High and Dolores Huerta Preparatory High School. See previous page.

   “With the understanding that our efforts must continue, we  are very pleased that more of our scholars are remaining in the classroom and graduating,” said Charlotte Macaluso, Pueblo D60 superintendent. “This is a tribute to the entire District team, from the Leadership Team to support personnel, who every day put the needs of our scholars at the forefront.”

   Central High School had a 2023 graduation rate of 91.5% — the highest rate of any high school in Pueblo D60. Dolores Huerta Preparatory High School, a Pueblo D60 charter high school, graduated 89.1% of its seniors in 2023.  

  

Endnotes


[i] “Bringing Business Leaders Back to School,” James A. Peyser, Education Next (Spring 2024 edition).

[iv] 2023 Annual Report, Gates Family Foundation. Under “Education”: “There is much work to be done to raise outcomes for all students in Colorado. In 2023, students in nearly every grade and subject had lower rates of grade-level proficiency than before the pandemic on the Colorado Measures of Academic Success (CMAS) standardized tests. Across the state, only 44 percent of students met or exceed expectations in English Language Arts, and only 33 percent did so in mathematics. Large proficiency gaps between student groups persist; a more than 30 percentage-point gap in proficiency exists between students who qualify for free- or reduced-price lunch and those who do not.”https://gatesfamilyfoundation.org/about/2023-annual-report/?utm_medium

 

[vi] “New Data Find Nearly Nine in 10 Parents Say Their Child Is at or Above Grade Level in Reading and Math, Despite Historic Declines,” Gallup and Learning Heroes, Nov. 15, 2023, https://blog.greatschools.org/2023/11/15/1701/.

The Gallup and Learning Heroes report – “B-flation: How Good Grades Can Sideline Parents.” https://www.gallup.com/analytics/513881/parents-perspectives-on-grades.aspx

[vii] Another View #131, 162, 183, 191, 222, 239, 263, & 264. https://anotherviewphj.blogspot.com/

[xiii] “Your Neighborhood School is a National Security Risk,” by Doug Lemov, Education Next (Winter 2024) https://www.educationnext.org/your-neighborhood-school-national-security-risk-student-achievement-merit-losing-prospects-era-everybody-wins/

[xiv] “Colorado survey shows huge lack of support for standardized testing,” by Nick Sullivan, The Gazette (May 4, 2023), https://gazette.com/news/education/colorado-survey-shows-huge-lack-of-support-for-standardized-testing/article_4ca60db2-e9fb-11ed-a3c1-93e8b20d4465.html#:~:text=

[xv] “SAT Suite of Assessments,” College Board, SAT College and Career Readiness Benchmarks:

  • Evidence-Based Reading and Writing: 480
  • Math: 530

- https://satsuite.collegeboard.org/k12-educators/about/understand-scores-benchmarks/benchmarks.

[xvi] Graduation Guidelines, “Menu of College and Career-Ready Demonstrations, Colorado Department of Education, https://www.cde.state.co.us/postsecondary/graduationguidelinesmenuofoptions09-21-22pdf

Includes this: “In order to place in college-level courses in Colorado, students must earn a 470 in English and a 500 in math. Learn about remediation rates from the Colorado Department of Higher Education (CDHE). CDE, https://www.cde.state.co.us/postsecondary/grad-sat.”

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