Another View #126 Peter
Huidekoper, Jr.
Feb. 3, 2015
AP Results - What the
Colorado Education Initiative Won’t Tell You
The Colorado Education Initiative has made claims about the success of
its AP Initiative that it has not supported. As I wrote last year (AV#114-Questions continue on rationale for more AP classes in our lowest-performing
high schools – 6/6/2014), it claimed a “70% increase in Advanced Placement
scores … during the 2012-13
school year.” However, the information it made available showed the
increase of those achieving qualifying scores that year was 33% (from 941 to 1,125). When asked for information to show how
students performed in its 10 “Legacy Schools” (cohort 1) in 2013, CEI (at the
time, known as the Colorado Legacy Foundation)—after assuring me, over the span
of four months, that it would do so, told
me it would not make those results
available to me. (End note #1)
What the CEI Initiative won’t tell you, but DPS will – p.2
|
Again this past November, when its
press release announced “Advanced Placement Program Celebrates Record Gains,” asserting
a 73% increase AP scores for the 10 schools that began implementation of the
Colorado Legacy Schools initiative in the 2013-2014 school year (cohort 2), it
was not accompanied by any report supporting such a boast (http://www.coloradoedinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Press-Release-Nov-20-event-FINAL.pdf). Greg
Hessee, director of the Colorado Legacy Schools Program at CEI, was quoted by Nelson
Garcia of channel 9 as making an even broader claim—for he appeared to speak of
not just those 10 new schools, but all 23 schools in CEI’s work: “At the schools where the
program currently exists in Colorado, he says 73 percent more students took AP
courses and passed the exam for college credit” (http://www.9news.com/story/news/education/2014/11/20/non-profit-program-expands-access-to-ap-courses/70012630/). (To his credit, Garcia included two key words: “he says.”)
Go
to CEI’s website and—incredibly, here in the winter of 2015—the most recent
scores listed come from 2011 (yes, 2011)—with estimates for 2013 and 2014 in those 10 schools in Cohort 1 (http://www.coloradoedinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Legacy-Schools-One-pager.pdf
). Equally unhelpful—see “Results” at http://www.coloradoedinitiative.org/our-work/colorado-legacy-schools/results/
: just a graph
of “first year
Copies of my two previous newsletters--#95
and #114-referred to here, are available at
AV#95 - Mismatch-adding more AP… (23 pages)
AV#114 - expanding AP in low-performing… (10 pages)
In #126 I try not to restate evidence presented
there.
|
growth.”
This includes the impressive increase at
three Colorado Springs-area high schools serving military families that CEI sent
me last year: 48 qualifying scores in 2011 jumped to 256 qualifying scores in
2012. Still, no specifics on its 10 new
schools in 2012-13 (cohort 1). And not a word on the 10 newest schools added in
2013-14 (cohort 2).
Fortunately,
Denver Public Schools does release the
data, school by school. With the facts now
available—proving how far off its earlier estimates turned out to be—CEI would
do well to take down its “projections” for 2013 and 2014.
After meeting CEI’s resistance last spring, I wrote AV#114—and waited.
A new executive director was hired this winter.
Recently I asked her to take a look at my newsletter of last June, and at
new questions related to the November 2014 assertion of a “73% increase.” The
response: “We stand behind the data.”
My argument all along – in my first piece on this
issue (AV#95 - Mismatch - Adding more AP
classes in low-performing high schools - Why
the push to expand AP classes in schools where so many students fail to achieve
qualifying scores? – 3/26/2013) and last year – has been that
the AP Initiative is an inappropriate choice for schools where most students perform
below grade level. It does not address a
much bigger problem. Abraham Lincoln High School in Denver has been my prime
example—but it is not alone (End Note #2). In AV#95 I reported that
Lincoln’s AP scores (4 out of 77 passed AP English tests in 2012) indicated it
was one of several high schools where the AP expansion by Denver Public Schools
(“Advanced coursework is pushed in DPS,” Denver
Post, Aug.21, 2009) made little sense.
In #AV114 I included the dismal AP pass rate at Lincoln before the first year of CEI’s AP
Initiative (2012)—24%, and after (2013)—again,
24%.
CEI told me
last April that specific information is not available due to confidentiality
agreements with the schools. But note
CEI’s bold assertions about “working to create a culture where using data to improve
public education is everyone’s job”; “we believe in sharing what we learn”; “we
act as the innovation and R & D partner for CDE” (End Note #3). Hardly consistent
with how it has reported on its AP Initiative. As what we do know fails to match what CEI has told us, the burden of proof is
on CEI to open its books.
Last May CEI completed its second year with its AP Initiative
at Lincoln. Here is what DPS reports.
What
the Colorado Education Initiative won’t tell you, but DPS will
For five years
now Denver Public Schools has presented the AP results at its high schools. (End note #4 - overall results.) Details
at: http://testing.dpsk12.org/reseach_eval/reports/test_results/AP/AP_results.htm. There we see this added note: “Scores not
reported for groups with fewer than 16 students.” No “personally identifiable information.” Understood. Otherwise, DPS makes the results public,
school by school, test by test.
Abraham Lincoln High
School
AP Tests passed – from DPS Accountability,
Research & Evaluation
2012 – BEFORE CEI AP INITIATIVE
|
2013 – First year of CEI AP INITIATIVE
|
2014 – 2nd year of CEI AP INITIATIVE
|
|||||||
N tested
|
N passed
|
%
|
N tested
|
N passed
|
%
|
N tested
|
N passed
|
%
|
|
Biology
|
8
|
*
|
*
|
8
|
*
|
*
|
13
|
*
|
*
|
Calculus AB
|
29
|
2
|
7%
|
26
|
1
|
4%
|
35
|
13
|
37%
|
Chemistry
|
0
|
*
|
*
|
11
|
*
|
*
|
9
|
*
|
*
|
Computer Science A
|
13
|
11
|
*
|
*
|
|||||
Eng. Language & Composition
|
77
|
4
|
5%
|
75
|
3
|
4%
|
86
|
3
|
3%
|
Eng. Literature & Composition
|
37
|
4
|
11%
|
49
|
2
|
4%
|
37
|
0
|
0%
|
Environmental Science
|
0
|
*
|
*
|
13
|
*
|
*
|
|||
Physics B
|
24
|
0
|
0%
|
37
|
1
|
3%
|
18
|
3
|
17%
|
Statistics
|
7
|
*
|
*
|
||||||
167
Total of
tests taken where # passed is available
|
10
|
6%
|
187
Total of
tests taken where # passed is available
|
7
|
3%
|
176
Total of
tests taken where # passed is available
|
19
|
11%
|
|
* Scores not reported for groups with fewer than 16
students.
What is a “good” passing rate on AP tests? See
Addendum B. National average – 55% Colorado -
59.5%
|
Yes, 0 out of 37 passed the
English Literature AP, and 3 out of 86
passed the English Language AP. In English on the AP English exams (both
Language and Literature), the number taking
the test has climbed from 2012, but the number passing has declined from
8 to 5 to 3. A 3% passing rate. (Bold mine.)
CEI’s work focuses on MSE (math, science, and English) courses, which I
assume includes the subjects above (the DPS website also lists scores for geography,
history, Spanish, etc.). At Abraham Lincoln, for the four MSE courses where the
numbers were large enough to report publicly, out of 176 tests taken, 19
received a 3 or better. A passing rate
of 11%. (19 3’s vs. 6 3’s in 2013; I
wonder – could this be part of CEI’s
PERSONAL POINT: Why my extra attention to AP English? Because I taught it. I have a sense of the difficulty. And I now help a few seniors at Rangeview
High with their work in AP Literature. Great plays and novels. Crime
and Punishment this winter. I re-read it last month. Amazing, but a real
challenge; not for everyone. As I wrote in AV#95, when I taught at a college
preparatory school 30 years ago, the AP English class was not seen as
appropriate for all our seniors. I’m
sure my own high school—where I did not qualify for Honors English senior
year—would not have placed me in such a class. Not for everyone.
|
happy news of a “73%” increase?)
If my categories are not what CEI calls its “MSE classes,” let’s hope CEI will produce its own report on which classes it does
count. So far, with no such data available, I give you—thanks to DPS—a rough idea
of how wrong CEI’s estimates proved to be, and how absurd it is that this is
what CEI tells us in February of 2015.
CEI (still) lists 40* Lincoln students
projected to pass AP MSE Exams in 2013.
DPS reports 6 passed.
CEI (still) lists 44* Lincoln students
projected to pass AP MSE Exams in 2014.
DPS reports 19 passed.
By now Denver Public Schools and
its principals must question if more AP classes—which is no doubt an excellent
idea where a good number of students demonstrate they are ready for such
college level work but have had not access to such an opportunity—is what a school
like Abraham Lincoln needs. Or a school
like Bruce Randolph. Though Bruce Randolph High School is not participating in
CEI’s AP Initiative, its AP scores on everything except the Spanish Language AP
led me to write last June, “5 out of 126 passed in 2013. What’s the point of
that?” Here is an update, with 2014 results.
Again, abysmal. Why go on?
Bruce Randolph –
AP Results – WITHOUT Spanish Language scores (in 2014, AP Lit, AP Language, and
US History)
2009-10
|
2010-11
|
2011-12
|
2012-13
|
2013-14
|
# Tested 142
|
110
|
90
|
126
|
106
|
# Passed 1
|
2
|
1
|
5
|
4
|
% Passed 1%
|
2%
|
1%
|
4%
|
4%
|
Sufficient
evidence, wouldn’t you agree, to say: STOP! Far better to develop curriculum
and instruction that meets these juniors and seniors where they are–most of them not yet performing at grade level–and to
help them make as much progress as possible. Classes where they find success,
improve their skills, and—one hopes— graduate without needing remediation in
reading, writing, and math once they enter college.
How, GOOD – no,
GREAT! –
to think of Jim Collins presenting to the
Colorado Association of School Boards
in Colorado Springs this past fall. Nice, too, to see on CASB’s website: Explore these helpful tools on the Jim Collins website, among
them “Jim’s 12 Questions,” number 12 of which reads: “What should be on our Stop Doing list?”
School boards,
superintendents, and principals would do well to insist that CEI make public
its data on the effectiveness of its AP Initiative at Abraham Lincoln, Aurora
Central, and other low-performing high schools. If the data reflects what I have found,
here is a perfect example of what school leaders should tell CEI to Stop
Doing.
|
“It’s a matter of
what’s a good fit for kids” – Ken Seeley
This is not lowering
expectations. It is being realistic about what is a good fit.
And it is taking
the results of the AP Initiative in schools like Abraham Lincoln and making
them public, so that we can see what is
and is not working—and make better choices to serve students in such
low-performing schools. It is past time for the Colorado Education
Initiative to come forth with honest information on the results of its AP work. The students at Lincoln—and schools like
it—deserve better than this.
Another View, a newsletter by Peter Huidekoper,
represents his own opinion and is not intended to represent the
view of any
organization he is associated with.
Comments are welcome. 303-757-1225 / peterhdkpr@gmail.com
End Notes
1.
“… we have
agreements with the schools we fund regarding release of data. We cannot
and will not violate the relationships we have with our school and district
partners, nor do I believe you would want us to.” Email from Dr. Helayne Jones,
President and CEO of Colorado Legacy Foundation, April 22, 2014.
2. School Performance Framework
These four high
schools in CEI’s AP Initiative are on Priority
Improvement or Improvement. Their
Academic Achievement Rating indicates the focus should be on grade-level
skills—not more college level (AP) classes.
District
|
Performance Indicator
|
Rating
|
% Points Earned out of Possible Points
|
|
Abraham
Lincoln
|
DPS
|
Academic Achievement
|
Does
Not Meet
|
25%
|
Aurora
Central
|
Aurora
|
Does
Not Meet
|
25%
|
|
Northglenn
|
Adams
12
|
Does
Not Meet
|
33.3%
|
|
Northridge
|
Greeley
6
|
Does
Not Meet
|
25%
|
Not in CEI’s AP Initiative, but also
on Improvement:
Bruce
Randolph
|
DPS
|
Academic Achievement
|
Does
Not Meet
|
25%
|
3. On data, sharing, and its R& D role - what
the Colorado Education Initiative states
A) On
the importance of using data: Home
page, “Who We Are”
“CEI is working to create a
culture where using data to improve public education is everyone’s job, and
data-driven decision making becomes ‘the new norm’ to improve student outcomes
and to provide a professional and rewarding environment for educators.”
B) On “sharing what we learn”
“WE BELIEVE IN SHARING WHAT WE
LEARN - Our role as a thought partner and partner with the Colorado
Department of Education and as a catalyst for innovation in schools and
districts has garnered national attention and interest from several states
considering the creation of similar organizations. We are excited to
find ways to pass on the good work we are doing with others.”
C) On partnerships and sharing knowledge
“We work in partnership
with the Colorado Department of Education and education, business and policy
partners across the state to accelerate bold improvement in student achievement
through innovation, collaboration and capacity building…. By sharing knowledge
and collaborating with diverse stakeholders, we are identifying a shared vision
and pathway for collective impact in public education.”
D) CDE’s R & D partner
“Today, we act as the innovation and R & D partner for
CDE.”
Over the past few years CDE’s Turnaround
Office has awarded large federal grants (School Improvement Grants) to several
of the state’s lowest-performing schools like Bruce Randolph, Montbello, and
West in Denver and Aurora Central High School in APS. (AV#121-After$63 million
- Oct. 2014) All of them have expanded
their AP offerings. Has it helped? CDE’s Turnaround Office must be eager to know
if adding college-level classes at schools with some of the state’s lowest
achievement scores makes sense.
This is exactly why CEI should show its
results, school by school. Its “R &
D partner” is distributing millions of federal dollars and the results have
been disheartening. CEI can show us if
its work makes any sense in a school like Aurora Central High, now receiving almost
$2.4 in federal funds over three years for “transformation.” Here is a school
that is entering its 5th year on Priority Improvement or Turnaround. Graduation
rate last year: 46.2% (state average: 77.3%) (http://co.chalkbeat.org/find-your-schools-2014-graduation-rate/). Its ACT
Composite Scores in 2014: 15.2 (state average: 20.3). http://www.cde.state.co.us/assessment/coact-dataandresults
Math
proficiency on TCAP in 2014—10.2% (state: 36.5%). Writing proficiency—19.2% (state: 51%). (https://edx.cde.state.co.us/SchoolView/DataCenter/reports.jspx?_afrWindowMode=0&_afrLoop=4095624656562705&_adf.ctrl-state=g91gqbpo4_4). Why, I ask, would CDE send one dime to such a
school – to expand its AP classes?
CDE should know better. Aurora Public
Schools should know better. As for Aurora Central—well, cue up the Steve Miller
Band: “go on take the money and run.”
We keep hearing about finding and
replicating strategies that work. To
that end it is critical to have data on the AP Initiative for the state and
districts and principals to know if it should keep pushing these courses, or
not, in schools like Lincoln, Aurora Central, and others. CEI could help. Give us the results.
4.
From DPS
- Assessment, Research & Evaluation – 2014 AP Tests Passed by School
2014
|
2014
|
|
# of tests passed
|
% passed
|
|
STRIVE Prep – SMART Academy
|
112
|
81%
|
Denver School of Science &
Technology: Stapleton
|
190
|
73%
|
Denver School of Science &
Technology: Green Valley Ranch
|
39
|
58%
|
East
|
998
|
57%
|
Denver School of the Arts
|
265
|
54%
|
Denver Center for International Studies
|
140
|
53%
|
KIPP Denver Collegiate
|
85
|
48%
|
Thomas Jefferson
|
201
|
35%
|
George Washington
|
148
|
31%
|
South
|
152
|
31%
|
Montbello
|
32
|
30%
|
In the following seven schools, less than 30% of
tests taken scored at 3 or above
|
||
Bruce Randolph H.S. (6-12)*
|
36
|
26%
|
North
|
55
|
24%
|
Abraham
Lincoln
|
107
|
23%
|
DCIS at Montbello
|
21
|
22%
|
John Kennedy
|
36
|
21%
|
Martin Luther King Early College
|
55
|
13%
|
Manual H.S.
|
2
|
2%
|
Addendum A – If Thomas Jefferson High (cohort
2) is one of CEI’s real successes…?
CEI’s press release (Nov. 20,
2014) stated:
“The AP teachers and students at
Thomas Jefferson High School far exceeded our expectations last year. The
students’ 153 percent increase in qualifying math, science, and English [MSE] AP
scores represents one of the largest improvements in the entire state,” said
Gregg Fleisher, Chief Academic Officer for the National Math and Science
Initiative. “Through our partner, The Colorado Education Initiative, we are
proud to support Thomas Jefferson and the state of Colorado to ensure that more
students have the opportunity to pursue majors and careers in STEM fields.”
What DPS will tell you …
Thomas Jefferson High School - AP Tests
passed – from DPS Accountability, Research & Evaluation
2012 - BEFORE CEI AP INITIATIVE
|
2013 - BEFORE CEI AP INITIATIVE
|
2014 – First year of CEI AP INITIATIVE
|
|||||||
N tested
|
N passed
|
%
|
N tested
|
N passed
|
%
|
N tested
|
N passed
|
%
|
|
Biology
|
13
|
*
|
*
|
18
|
13
|
72%
|
|||
Calculus AB
|
24
|
7
|
29
|
25
|
3
|
12%
|
13
|
*
|
*
|
Chemistry
|
0
|
*
|
*
|
11
|
*
|
*
|
|||
Computer Science A
|
0
|
*
|
*
|
||||||
Eng. Language & Composition
|
65
|
19
|
29
|
76
|
10
|
13%
|
104
|
39
|
38%
|
Eng. Language & Literature
|
34
|
8
|
24
|
21
|
8
|
38%
|
40
|
10
|
25%
|
Environmental Science
|
0
|
*
|
*
|
62
|
15
|
24%
|
|||
Physics B
|
13
|
*
|
*
|
20
|
12
|
60%
|
12
|
*
|
*
|
Statistics
|
0
|
*
|
*
|
7
|
*
|
*
|
|||
123
Total of
tests taken where # passed is available
|
34
|
28%
|
142
Total of
tests taken where # passed is available
|
33
|
23%
|
267
Total of
tests taken where # passed is available
|
77
|
29%
|
|
*Where 15 or fewer
students took the test in that subject, DPS does not release the number
passing.
So “one of the largest
improvements in the entire state” saw 125 more students take these MSE AP tests
in 2014 than in 2013, with 44 more passing (77) than the previous year (33). Kudos
to Thomas Jefferson’s AP Biology teacher and students: 72% passed! But on other MSE tests (English and
Environmental Science) only 31% passed (64 out of 206). Overall DPS figures
show the passing rate at Thomas Jefferson last year, on all the MSE AP tests,
to be 29%—just 1% higher than in 2012—28%.
I can see some value in expanding
AP opportunities at Thomas Jefferson. When the number taking and the percentage
passing AP tests both climb—as
DPS shows they did at TJ, George Washington, and KIPP Denver Collegiate from
2013 to 2014—the evidence suggests: it’s worth a try. But the data above raises
doubts about the other CEI schools.
Because if Thomas Jefferson is one of CEI’s best stories for 2014….
Addendum B – What is a “good” passing rate?
What is a
“good enough” percentage of students passing on AP tests? Do we expect 100% of the students taking the most
difficult Physics AP to pass, as we saw at Denver School of Science and
Technology last year? (CONGRATULATIONS TO DSST PHYSICS TEACHER
HILARY WALKER AND HER STUDENTS! We would do well to keep in mind Hilary’s
comment to me on the great results: “the preparation really began freshman
year.”)
No, but we ought to take into
account the national average: 55% of total AP exams received a 3 or better
in 2013. In Colorado, the average for AP
passing scores in 2013 was 59.5%.
On the AP English Literature exam, across the county, 55% received a 3 or better in both 2014
and 2013.
In Colorado, 63.1% passed this
exam in 2013. (Details, supporting documents - Addendum C.)
When less
than one third of the students in a school who take a test pass (a score of 3
or better), it is fair to ask if this is a good fit in this building. Are
expectations high enough when enrolling students in the AP classes? Any wonder
that we hear of the curriculum being watered down to adjust for the skills of
the students, resulting in a course that is “AP” in name only? In such cases, no wonder so few pass the exam.
Centennial High – one of CEI’s “Legacy
Schools” – cohort 1
It is also disturbing that some
high schools think “better AP results” might earn them a higher rating on the
state’s performance rating. Like Abraham Lincoln, Centennial High in Pueblo is
one of the schools in cohort 1 of the CEI AP Initiative. Centennial recently asked
the Colorado Department of Education for a higher rating due to its AP
results. CDE’s denial indicated it was
not impressed by a passing rate near 44%.
One assumes CDE would find passing rates below 30%--one-half the state
average on AP exams—even more disappointing.
From “2014 District Accreditation and School Plan Type Assignments –
Request to Reconsideration Summary,” page 71.
PUEBLO CITY 60 – Centennial High School
“In its request,
the district proposed that CDE consider the results of supplemental assessment
results from annual Advanced Placement (AP) exams as evidence that Centennial
High School should be assigned a higher performance rating. The district argued
that the school’s improved performance on the AP exams from 2010 through 2014
reflected reform efforts that have been aimed at implementing a more tightly
aligned academic framework. The district suggested that this supplemental data
should carry enough weight to warrant a higher rating on the Post-Secondary and
Workforce Readiness (PWR) indicator, which would in turn result in a higher
overall percentage of points, and would thus justify a Performance plan type….”
Reason for Denial (p. 71)
“CDE determined
that although the performance of students taking the AP exam has improved
since 2010, the percentage of Centennial
students scoring three or higher on an AP exam remained 18 percentage points below the state average of 62.2%. For this
reason, the review committee determined that the AP results did not provide
sufficient evidence of improved student performance to approve the request to
move the school to Performance.” (Bold mine) http://www.cde.state.co.us/accountability/2014districtandschoolrequeststoreconsider
Addendum C
The 10th
Annual AP Report to the Nation
UNITED STATES – 2013
- Total AP Exams – 1,824,503
Total AP Exams Scoring
3 or better - 1,000,135
= 55% (page 7)
COLORADO – 2013
- Total AP Exams – 57,314
% of Exams Scoring 3
or better = 59.5% (Figure 4, page 13)
________________________________________________________________________________________
AP English Literature
and Composition Exam
Nationally, both of
the last two years, 55% of students scored a 3 or better.
UNITED STATES – 2014
– 55%
EXAM
Score
|
N
|
% AT
|
5
|
30,422
|
7.7%
|
4
|
70,602
|
17.8%
|
3
|
117,748
|
29.6%
|
2
|
131,210
|
33.0%
|
1
|
47,495
|
11.9%
|
Number of
students
|
397,477
|
|
3 or Higher / %
|
218,772
|
55%
|
http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/2014/STUDENT-SCORE-DISTRIBUTIONS-2014.pdf
UNITED
STATES - 2013 - 55%
http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/ap/rtn/10th-annual/10th-annual-ap-report-to-the-nation-single-page.pdf (325,108 “Total number of exams”)
In COLORADO, on the AP
English Literature and Composition exam, 63.1% scored a 3 or better in 2013.
EXAM
Score
|
% AT
|
|
5
|
63.1% pass
(3 or higher)
|
7.8%
|
4
|
20.5%
|
|
3
|
34.8%
|
|
2
|
31.2%
|
|
1
|
5.8%
|
http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/ap/rtn/10th-annual/10th-annual-ap-report-state-supplement-colorado.pdf (2014
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