Tuesday, August 30, 2016

AV#152: Colorado: ACT results invite questions- grad rates=college ready?


          August 30, 2016

Do I dare
Disturb the universe?
        from “The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock,” by T.S. Eliot

Did you miss the headline in last week’s Denver Post?
ACT scores show many grads not ready for college-level work
http://www.denverpost.com/2016/08/24/act-scores-many-grads-not-ready-for-college/
Easy to shrug off, if we think that’s not true about our state, our district, our high school. But it is.

Earlier this month, Chalkbeat Colorado opened its story on our ACT scores with a Well done!
Colorado is ending its run with the ACT college entrance exam on a high note. The state’s overall average composite score last year was a 20.4, the highest it’s been since the state began administering the test to high school juniors in 2001. http://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/co/2016/08/11/colorados-act-score-hits-peak-but-changes-to-high-school-test-are-coming/#.V79aC5grLIU
Which was true …
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
State Average
20.2
20.0
20.0
19.9
20.0
20.1
20.3
20.1
20.4
… but, once we take a closer look, little good news, especially for our urban high schools.

The Denver Post gave us all of two sentences on the Colorado ACT results:
This year, Colorado juniors had an overall score of 20.4, up from 20.1 in 2015. White students scored 21.9 on average in 2016, Latino students 17.7 and black students 17.4.
                             (http://www.denverpost.com/2016/08/11/colorado-standardized-tests-small-gains-opt-outs/)

And the Colorado Department of Education simply published one page of numbers, including these.  (The bottom two lines are my addition.)

11th Grade COLORADO ACT Average Test Scores for 2016
Colorado ACT State Test Results
Student Count
English
Math
Reading
Science
Composite
Valid records
54,820
19.6
20.0
20.7
20.6
20.4
Eligibility for Free or Reduced Lunch






Neither free nor reduced lunch eligible
36,794
21.3
21.3
22.2
21.9
21.8
Total Free or Reduced Lunch Eligible
18,630
16.4
17.6
17.8
18.2
17.6
Race/Ethnicity






American Indian or Alaska Native
413
16.5
18.2
18.4
18.6
18.1
Asian
1,833
21.5
22.7
21.9
22.5
22.3
Black or African American
2,608
16.3
17.3
17.5
18.0
17.4
Hispanic
16,639
16.5
17.7
17.8
18.3
17.7
White
31,721
21.5
21.3
22.4
22.0
21.9
Two or more races
2,042
20.9
20.7
22.0
21.5
21.4







Scores ACT considers college ready*

18
22
22
23
21**
GAP

+1.6
-2.0
-1.3
-2.4
-.6
                                                      http://www.cde.state.co.us/assessment/coactstatesummary2016
*No doubt many will challenge this.  More on this soon!

**Composite is average of the four tests. (See ACT: Understanding ACT Test Scores, Using Scores, and Scoring Factors ...)


As an organization, ACT is more willing to draw conclusions.  Its recent report on Colorado (“The Condition of College and Career Readiness - 2016 – Colorado,”   http://www.act.org/content/dam/act/unsecured/documents/state06_Colorado_Web_Secured.pdf), found:      
-Only 25% of Colorado students met all four ACT College Readiness Benchmarks. 
-Only 49% of white students, 24% of African-American students, and 17% of Hispanic students met three or more benchmarks indicating “a strong likelihood of experiencing success in college.”

ACT’s report shows the significant gaps by race and ethnicity (as seen in graph on page 1) this way:

Percent of 2016 graduates meeting ACT benchmarks
English
Math
Reading
Science
COLORADO – All graduates
61
39
42
36
African American
40
18
23
16
Hispanic
39
20
23
17
Asian
71
62
51
51
White
75
50
54
48

No one, I hope, will look at that – and shrug!
**

Here, then, a last attempt to argue that this news does hit home, if we believe these tests are meaningful. If we believe these numbers tell us something.  As I do. 

A last attempt because most Colorado high school students will no longer take the ACT college entrance exam.  The state board has decided to replace it with the SAT beginning next spring.  Unfortunate, I believe, given what we could learn from staying with at least one national measure over a long period.  We have now shifted from Iowa tests (early 1990’s) to CSAP (1997) to TCAP (2012) to PARCC (2015).  Next spring, for high school juniors, another new test. 

So before we toss the final ACT results aside, I raise several questions based on what they might tell us.  I am well aware you might say this makes WAY TOO MUCH of one test.  I let ACT make its own case for how it comes up with the scores it considers college ready. (Addendum C.)  And please note that it is quick to acknowledge these scores are merely one factor “that contributes to educational success” (Addendum D).  I have tutored Aurora high school students the past five years.  Have I seen a number of College Track students with low ACT scores get decent grades and enter four-year colleges?  Absolutely! No one is claiming ACT scores mean EVERYTHING. I would never say that.

I present recent ACT results in specific schools—below—to examine our goals and reform efforts and ask:

1.   When we see so many low-performing high schools in the metro area continue to perform so poorly on the ACT—please note: for 5 years running—can anyone say we have succeeded in bringing about significant high school reform in Denver and nearby districts?  (Yes, I repeat myself: Another View has pointed to ACT scores numerous times – see Addendum E. Page 3 is just an update.)
2.    Look specifically at ACT scores for Montbello, Noel, North, West, and Aurora Central; together they received almost $13 million in federal grants to raise achievement.  Can DPS or APS say more students in these buildings are now college ready? (Look too for the “new” schools that emerged after closures.)
3.    The state and DPS set goals for students to graduate college ready. Aspirational, perhaps—but serious?  Who can argue that our graduation requirements equate to college readiness?  Look at the schools with high graduation rates and terribly low ACT scores; look at the high remediation rates for the minority of their graduates who go on to a Colorado college.  (This updates my 2015 commentary in The Denver Post, http://www.denverpost.com/2015/07/02/huidekoper-high-school-graduation-rates-arent-necessarily-a-reason-to-celebrate/.)



21 metro area high schools all (except one) with ACT scores under 17 in 2016
Schools in blue received*** a total of nearly $13 million in federal turnaround funds between 2010 and 2016
District
School
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Change over 5 years
Adams County 14
Adams City High School
15.6
16.2
16.1
15.9
16.6
+1.0
Aurora Public Schools
Aurora Central H.S.
14.9
15.0
15.2
15.1
15.9
+1.0
Gateway H.S.
16.5
16.5
16.8
16.2
16.1
-.4
Hinkley H.S.
16.9
17.1
17.0
17.0
16.9
-
Denver Public Schools
Bruce Randolph H.S. (6-12)
16.0
15.2
16.4
17.1
15.8
-.2
Abraham Lincoln
15.5
15.6
16.0
14.8
16.4
+.9
Manual H.S.
16.1
15.7
16.1
16.2
16.3
+.2
Martin Luther King Early College
17.4
17.1
17.1
16.1
16.3
-1.1
Montbello H.S.
15.0
15.1
-



   Collegiate Prep Academy
-
-
15.6
15.2
16.7
(+1.1)*
   DCIS at Montbello
-
-
17.1
16.9
16.4
(-.7)*
   High Tech Early College
-
16.9
15.6
15.1
16.3
(-.6)*
Noel Community Arts School

-
-
15.6
17.2

North H. S.
15.2
16.3
16.9
16.2
16.7
+1.5
Southwest Early College
17.3
16.1
16.4
16.7
16.9
-.4
Venture Prep H.S.
17.2
16.6
16.8
16.6
16.5
-.7
West H.S.
14.9
15.0
14.7
-
-


  West Generation Academy
-
-
-
14.7
15.6


  West Leadership Academy
-
-
-
15.2
15.6

       DPS subtotal

16.07



16.36
+.29








Jefferson County
Alameda International H.S.
16.3
16.1
16.5
16.3
16.9
+.6
Jefferson H.S.
14.8
15.1
16.1
15.6
16
+1.2
Sheridan
Sheridan H.S.
16.7
16.4
15.9
15.5
16.3
-.4
Westminster 50
Westminster H.S.
16.3
16.1
16.2
15.9
16.4
+.1








Average

16.03



16.37
+.34
State Average

20.0
20.1
20.3
20.1
20.4

*The college readiness benchmark, according to ACT:
21

Scores found at CDE’s web site, http://www.cde.state.co.us/assessment/coact
*ACT explanation - Addendum C
**(Change since opening year, which was after 2012)

***Federal Tiered Intervention Grants (TIG) to four schools in Denver schools and one in Aurora where we still see ACT scores under 17 in all but one of the “new” or “turnaround” schools.
Montbello High  -            $3,388,350              (2010-11 – 2012-13)
North High School -        $3,106,922           (2010-11 – 2012-13)       
Noel Middle School**-  $2,776,580            (2010-11 – 2012-13)
Aurora Central -              $2,500,000              (2013-14 – 2015-16)
West High School -         $1,113, 589             (2012-13 – 2014-15)
TOTAL                             $12,885,441
**Part of the transformation of Noel led to a 6-12 school.
More on these grants in Addendum F. 
Bruce Randolph Middle School also received a TIG grant ($1.5 million over three years).  The last most complete look at the TIG funds to Colorado was produced by A Plus Denver in December 2013, “Colorado’s Turnaround Schools -Make a Wish”  http://www.aplusdenver.org/A_Plus_Denver_News/press-release-colorados-turnaround-schools.


GRADUATION GOALS versus COLLEGE READY GOALS

How can we look at the ACT results and believe we will “graduate 80% of our students college ready”?

STATE GOALS - The Colorado Department of Education lists “four overarching goals that are focused on supporting students through every step of their schooling.” (http://www.cde.state.co.us/cdecomm/aboutcde)
1.    Start Strong - Every student starts strong with a solid foundation in grades preschool-3.
2.    Read by Third Grade - Every student reads at grade level by the end of third grade.
3.    Meet or Exceed Standards - Every student meets or exceeds standards.
4.    Graduate Ready - Every student graduates ready for college and careers.

“Every.”  Yes, aspirational. But the state’s performance plan adds specific targets:

Goal 4: Graduate Ready  -  “Every student graduates ready for college and careers. Ensure every student graduates college and career ready by increasing the graduation rate to 86.6% in 2016, with the goal of 90.7% by 2018. (Six-year graduation rate).” (https://www.cde.state.co.us/cdecomm/cdeperformanceplan)

Let’s be clear: Goal 4 is really about two different goals.  To increase the graduate rate … AND to see that students graduate ready for college and careers.  As you see on the next page (Addendum A), when we put our ACT results next to graduation rates we see no correlation.  We are finding ways to increase graduation rates in schools where a far smaller percentage graduate–the ACT tells us—are college ready.   I opened with a recent headline:  “ACT scores show many grads not ready for college-level work.”  Exactly.

DPS GOALS: In the district’s Denver Plan, GOAL 3 is “Ready for College & Career”:

By 2020, the four-year graduation rate for students who start with DPS in ninth grade will increase to 90%.
By 2020, we will double the number of students who graduate college and career-ready, as measured by the increasing rigor of the state standard.
Denver might say: at least they are stated as two different goals.  But re-read GOAL 3: “Ready for College.”           
And don’t the ACT results show that in 2016, only five Denver high schools are meeting this goal?
2016
Denver School of the Arts
24.8
Denver School of Science & Technology-Stapleton
24.2
Denver School of Science & Technology-Green Valley
22.9
East
22.1
Denver Center for International Studies
21.6
    The college readiness benchmark, according to ACT
21
(Not coincidentally, the top four above were the only high schools rated “Distinguished” on the Denver’s School Performance Framework - 2014.)

And at the other end, when a school’s ACT average score is BELOW 17*, I assume you can agree that most graduates are not college ready.  But on the next page, also note how many schools show graduation rates that “look” OK—even above the state average! (See also Addendum B.) Again, we can graduate 75% of our seniors, even when perhaps – a guess – less than 25% are college ready. 

Until there is a correlation, let’s stop the nonsense of packing these two goals into one phrase.

More importantly, let’s be honest.  Do we really intend to see our students “graduate college ready”?
 
*See College Simply: “Is a 17 on the ACT a good score? A 17 is pretty low. It places you in approximately the 28th percentile nationally for all students who took the ACT. For comparison purposes, a 17 on the ACT converts to a 910 on the SAT based on College Board concordance for the new SAT.” http://www.collegesimply.com/guides/17-on-the-act/

Another View, a newsletter by Peter Huidekoper, represents his own opinion and is not intended to represent the view
of any organization he is associated with.  Comments are welcome. 303-757-1225 / peterhdkpr@gmail.com



Addendum A  –  21 local schools - comparing ACT, graduation rates, and remediation rates

NOT, clearly NOT, the same years or the same students.  But it does illustrate my point.  Colorado students graduate from high school without the academic skills we equate with being “college ready.” 


2016
2015[1]
2014
District
School
ACT[2]
# of graduates out of total in 12th grade
Graduation rate
Remediation rate[3]
 # who needed remediation out of number of graduates who attended Colorado colleges
# of students enrolled in 12th grade[4]
Adams County 14
Adams City High School
16.6
267/366
73%
64.10%
50/78
392
Aurora Public Schools
Aurora Central H.S.
15.9
212/479
44.3%
63.37%
64/101
722
Gateway H.S.
16.1
222/397
55.9%
51.72%
45/87
468
Hinkley H.S.
16.9
314/521
60.3%
50.69%
73/144
655
Denver Public Schools
Bruce Randolph H.S. (6-12)
15.8
64/81
79%
75%
15/20
90
Abraham Lincoln
16.4
266/344
77.3%
57.83%
48/83
307
Manual H.S.
16.3
39/74
52.7%
76.19%
16/21
64
Martin Luther King
16.3
105/150
70%
49.18%[5]
30/61
144
Montbello H.S.

-
-
69.23%
36/52
284
Collegiate Prep Academy
16.7
56/80
70%
-
-
-
   DCIS at Montbello
16.4
78/90
86.7%
-
-
-
   High Tech Early College
16.3
63/81
77.8%
-
-
-
   Noel  Community
17.2
36/41
87.81%
-
-
-
North H. S.
16.7
95/134
70.9%
56.90%
33/58
228
Southwest Early College
16.9
26/59
44.1%
-
-
62
Venture Prep H.S.
16.5
24/30
80%
-
-
39
West H.S.

68/92
73.9%
75.53%
25/34
88

  West Generations Academy
15.6
-
-

-
-

  West Leadership
15.6
-
-

-
-
(DPS- the district)

18.6
3,257/5,029
64.8%
62%[6]


Jefferson County
Alameda International H.S.
16.9
158/170
92.9%
71.43%
40/56
191
Jefferson H.S.
16
76/118
64.4%
58.82%
20/34
166
Sheridan
Sheridan H.S.
16.3
64/71
90%
44.68%
21/47
125
Westminster 50
Westminster H.S.
16.4
376/568
66.2%
56.62%
89/136
535
State Average

20.4

77.3%
35.4%


National Average

20.8







Addendum B – 5 schools: Graduation rates vs. ACT scores - How is that possible?

When schools with markedly different ACT outcomes – see below—have equally “high” graduation rates – equal to or above the state average! – is it not fair to ask if the high school diploma at these schools represents a different level of accomplishment, a significant difference in academic skills and knowledge?  (Remediation rates* invite the same question, but are not yet available for the class of 2015.)

To be specific, in 2014 juniors at Randolph and Lincoln scored 2 points or more lower than the district average. How is it possible that, a year later, the 2015 graduation rate at Randolph and Lincoln can be 10 points higher (over 77%) than the district average (under 65%)? 


Grad rate in 2015 (seniors)
ACT score in 2014 (juniors)
   DSST- Stapleton
81.9%
24.5
Bruce Randolph
79%
16.4
   South High
78.6%
17.3
Abraham Lincoln
77.3%
16.0
   John Kennedy
76.7%
17.3



Denver Public Schools
64.8%
18.4
STATE AVERAGE
77.3%
20.1
     *Remediation rates: We only have remediation rates from the Department of Higher Education for the class of 2014. DPS is using different criteria to determine remedial rates, justifiably eager to get “actionable” data back to the schools much sooner than DHE can provide; the district’s efforts to reduce remediation rates in 2014-15 showed, by its own analysis, much lower remedial rates for high schools like Lincoln and Manual in 2015.  I depend here on DHE’s findings, albeit two years old.  As shown on page 4, remedial rates for the class of 2014 from Lincoln (75%) and Randolph (58%) contrast sharply with the remedial rate for DSST grads (15%).  And yet for these 3 schools, remarkably similar graduation rates.
      Several other schools claim a graduation rate of 70% or better even though the average ACT scores in these schools is under 17: Alameda International High (Jeffco)–92%; Sheridan–90%; Adams City High–73%; North High School – 70.9%; Martin Luther King– 70%.

Addendum C – ACT on college readiness benchmarks

From “The Condition of College and Career Readiness - 2014 – Colorado,”                    https://www.act.org/content/dam/act/unsecured/documents/CCCR-2014-Colorado.pdf.
“The Benchmarks are scores on the ACT subject-area tests that represent the level of achievement required for students to have a 50% chance of obtaining a B or higher or about a 75% chance of obtaining a C or higher in corresponding credit-bearing first-year college courses. These college courses include English composition, college algebra, introductory social science courses, and biology. Based on a sample of 214 institutions and more than 230,000 students from across the United States, the Benchmarks are median course placement values for these institutions and as such represent a typical set of expectations”
For more on the validity of ACT scores, see “How ACT assessments align with state college and career readiness standards,” http://www.act.org/content/dam/act/unsecured/documents/Alignment-White-Paper.pdf.
See also “Why Scores on the ACT® Test Are Scores You Can Trust,”  http://www.act.org/content/dam/act/unsecured/documents/Scores-You-Can-Trust.pdf.


Addendum D – ACT: hardly the only key factor

ACT acknowledges the test itself, and even academic preparation, is not the only key factor in whether a student can be successful in college.

“We understand that academic readiness is just one of several factors that contribute to educational success. One 2014 ACT report, Broadening the Definition of College and Career Readiness: A Holistic Approach, shows academic readiness—long the sole focus of monitoring college readiness—as one of four critical domains in determining an individual’s readiness for success in college and career. Crosscutting skills, behavioral skills, and the ability to navigate future pathways are also important factors to measure and address. Together, these elements define a clear picture of student readiness for postsecondary education. To encourage progress, the educational system needs to monitor and sustain all key factors of success.”
http://www.act.org/content/act/en/research/condition-of-college-and-career-readiness-report-2015.html?page=0&chapter=1


Addendum E – Thou dost repeat thyself!
Another View (2013- 2015) - on low-performing high schools, often using ACT results

-#92 update-Brief follow-up to AV#92 – Regional economic development works. Why not a regional recovery school district? A look at the overall decline in ACT scores, at 16 metro-area high schools–2012 to 2013 (Sept 2013)
-“2013 results for high schools in DPS and metro area –a quick check,” (Huidekoper, Sept. 2013)
“If measuring ACT scores and growth—or declines—is helpful in speaking of the college-readiness of DPS high school juniors, the year before they graduate, the rising district score is good to see, but the results in over half of DPS high schools is not.”
-#114 – AP Initiative in low-performing high schools (June 2014)
-#121 - More federal dollars to Colorado for the School Improvement Grant? After $63 million,
time to say: No thanks. We haven’t earned it. (Oct. 2014)
(includes a closer look at grants to Brue Randolph and Aurora Central)
-#129 – High schools – small is better (April 2015)
-#136 - Local control” not enough; the state still has a key role in accountability  - subheading: Though “only one test,” ACT results reminds us why we should not wait until 2016-17 to act (Sept 2015).


Addendum F – Federal Tiered Intervention Grants, 2010-2016

Montbello High School – “Four new schools replace Montbello High School over a four year phase-out. Phase in of Collegiate Prep Academy, Noel Community Arts (6-12), Denver Center for International Studies (6-12), and High Tech Early College.”
Noel Middle School - “Three new school models replace Noel Middle School over a three year phase-out. Phase in of Noel Community Arts (6-12), KIPP Montbello, and Denver Center for International Studies (6-12).”
North High School – “Hired a new principal and replaced many staff with new academic plan. North replaced the first “turnaround” principal hired in 2008, with a new principal in 2011.”
(Summaries from A Plus Denver’s Rays of Hope report on school turnarounds, 2012.)
http://www.aplusdenver.org/_docs/FINAL%20TURNAROUND%20DRAFT%2010.10.12.pdf

West High School – “The plan to turnaround West High School has been underway since spring 2010 when west Denver community leaders met with DPS leaders to discuss the future of West High School…. Committee discussions led to the decision to phase out West High School and phase in two new 6th-12th grade schools co-located within the historic West High School building."
CDE web site – TIG grant to Denver, West for 2012-2015 http://www.cde.state.co.us/sites/default/files/documents/fedprograms/dl/ti_a_stig_dps.pdf

Aurora Central High School – “Aurora Public Schools will leverage the Tiered Intervention Grant funds to provide the resources necessary to rapidly build the pedagogical capacity of staff while establishing sustainable systems and structures to make the transformational change that is required.”
CDE web site – TIG grant to Aurora, Aurora Central for 2013-2016 http://www.cde.state.co.us/fedprograms/tigaurora


[1] Scores found at CDE’s web site, http://www.cde.state.co.us/cdereval/gradcurrent
[2] Scores found at CDE’s web site, http://www.cde.state.co.us/assessment/coact
[3] From Colorado Department of Higher Education’s 2015 LEGISLATIVE REPORT ON REMEDIAL EDUCATION, submitted May 2016,   http://highered.colorado.gov/Publications/Reports/Remedial/FY2015/2015_Remedial_relMay2016.pdf
[4] # of students enrolled in grade 12 from, CDE – 2013-14 Pupil Membership - http://www.cde.state.co.us/cdereval/rv2013pmlinks.
[5] Remediation rates under 50% might appear a positive sign for that high school, but note that at Martin Luther King Early College, out of a senior class of 144 in 2014, only 61 matriculated the next fall in a Colorado college; at Sheridan High, out of a senior class of 125, only 47 matriculated the next fall in a Colorado college.  Even with these low percentages of students going on to higher education the very next fall, nearly half were not seen as college ready in at least one subject, requiring remedial classes.
[6] Chalkbeat Colorado - http://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/co/2016/06/20/what-colorados-numbers-tell-us-and-dont-tell-us-about-who-needs-remedial-work-in-college/#.V8SEXJgrLIU – “DPS reported that its district-wide remediation rate had declined from 62 percent for the class of 2014 to 50 percent for the class of 2015.”

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