All of us who have taught worry about the future of our profession. Why the decline in the number of young people who hope to teach? In a few years, will we have enough good men and women who want to teach?
Pupil enrollment in Colorado’s public schools has declined by roughly 2% this decade. The issue gets a lot of attention. (The latest, just last week: “Adams 12 to close six schools at the end of the academic year.”[i]) But the number of teachers entering the profession in our state has declined even more rapidly.
Another View #306 presents 12 charts on the troubling trends. I hope they encourage more attention
|
Next Month, AV #307, positive news. A 19-year-old in an educator prep program who CAN’T WAIT TO TEACH! Enthusiasm, determination, passion … meet Kelly. |
to and action on this issue. The charts reveal a declining number in our education preparation programs and disturbing data on teacher shortages. We must make this topic a higher priority.
Here you see the declining number of those entering and completing our traditional teacher preparation program programs. The ever-growing number enrolling and completing Alternative Licensure programs (Charts 3 and 6) keeps the overall decline from being as unsettling as it would be otherwise. Still, including both traditional and alternative programs, the decline from 2020 (14,104) to 2024 (11,048) is alarming.
 |
2020 to 2024: Overall – minus 3,056 / Traditional – minus 3,677 - Drop of 29%
2020 to 2024:
Overall – minus 431 / Traditional – minus 447 - Drop
of 17%
*CDE’s Education Preparation Programs Report. This is also the source for data in charts 3-6. https://ed.cde.state.co.us/educatortalent/researchandimpact/epp-dashboard.
A contrast - Alternative Teacher Licensure programs in Colorado
Participation in alternative licensure programs has shown steady growth.
2020-2025: Enrolling – plus 851 – up 65% / Completing – plus 110 – up 12%
Educator Preparation Programs for Elementary Education
Given Another View’s attention to the state’s struggles to help our youngest students develop strong reading skills, this update includes a look at the decline in the number enrolling and completing an elementary education program. The state has modified its goals for the READ Act: rather than aim to see ALL third graders read at grade level, the new target is 60% by 2028. We will never meet that (already) implausible goal (2026 results showed a decline from 2025; only 40.8% of third graders Met Expectations) if fewer well-prepared K-5 teachers enter the profession.
 |
2020 to 2024: Overall – minus 85 / Traditional – minus 111 - Drop of 19%
In traditional programs, the
percent of those who completed out of those enrolled = 21% (460 divided by
2,174).
A
hopeful note in 2022, but it now looks too rosy
State data, as presented in AV #306, now
comes from CDE’s Dashboard. Its more current numbers show that the positive
bump in 2020-21 did not continue; we have seen a significant decline in completers
since then (608 to 460). Equally worrisome, as Chart 7 will show, the teacher
shortage for elementary teachers has more than doubled since 2020-21.
Again,
a contrast - Alternative Teacher Licensure
Chart 3 presented the positive trend, overall, for Alternative Licensure programs. Chart 6 shows that this has been especially true in elementary education programs.
2020-2025: Enrolling - plus 257
- up 110% / Completing – plus 52 - up 31%
Towards an endorsement in
Elementary Education:
Over these six years the number:
-enrolling in an Alternative
Teacher Licensure program more than doubled, from 233 to 490.
-completing the Alternative
Teacher Licensure program grew by 31%.
In 2025, the percentage of those who completed
out of those enrolled = 45% (220 out of 490).
Educator shortage in Colorado
Here you see the most recent data on teacher
shortages, from CDE’s Dashboard, “Educator Shortage in Colorado Public
Schools.” (Data from 2019-2026.)[iii]
|
Statewide |
2018-19 |
2019-20 |
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
2023-24 |
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
|
Teacher Openings |
7,931 (15%) |
6,070 |
6,606 |
5,938 |
8,596 (16%) |
7,456 |
7,704 |
6,447 (12%) |
|
(% of all positions) |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Top Two Teacher Shortage Areas |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Special Education Generalist - FTE |
187 |
256.1 |
212 |
292 |
539.9 |
526.1 |
486.4 |
578.2 |
|
Elementary Education - FTE |
275 |
210 |
224.3 |
327.8 |
495.1 |
601.7 |
482.0 |
469.8 |
Overall,
the number of teacher openings declined from 2019 to 2022 (perhaps Covid
related), rose in 2023, and has declined since then. In 2025-26 the percentage
of teacher openings was lower (12%) than it had been in 2018-19 (15%).
However, the
number of teacher shortages in special education and elementary education rose from
2019 to 2023. The numbers have since remained well above pre-Covid levels.
·
For special education, in 2025-26, the
number of teacher shortages was the highest it has been in these eight years (578.2).
·
For elementary education, the number of
shortages was highest in 2023-24 (601.7). It has declined some the past two
years. Nevertheless, the 2025-26 total of roughly 470 is more than
twice the number we saw in 2020 (210) and 2021 (224.3).
 |
From 2019-2026,
the shortage in Elementary Education grew - 275 to 470 – up 71%
COMMENT: In the 2022 CDHE/CDE report, a
section on “Addressing Content Shortage Areas” looked closely at special
education, early childhood, and mathematics.
The number of teachers earning a license in
elementary education is a different category than “content shortage.” Still, it
is worth noting that 2022 report did not see what is now so apparent – the growing
shortage of teachers with a license in elementary education.
A closer look at
Colorado’s teacher shortage
The Colorado
Center for Rural Education (CCRE) provides more detail on the shortage. Its
2024 study, “Mitigating the teacher shortage in Colorado,” told us:[v]
“The teacher shortage in Colorado is worse than the national shortage.… According to the CDE’s 2023-2024 educator shortage survey results, Colorado’s rural and small rural districts and BOCES had 905 positions filled by shortage mechanisms, including long-term substitutes (280), retired educators (196), alternative candidates (308), and emergency candidates (121). Importantly, 250 rural and small rural district teaching positions were unfilled for the entire year. The need for alternative pathways has grown during each of the past six years.”
That 2024 report, and CCRE’s more recent
updates, give these numbers over eight years:
|
|
Long-Term Sub |
Retired |
Alternative |
Emergency |
Unfilled |
Totals |
|
2018-19 |
92 |
82 |
205 |
81 |
71 |
531 |
|
2019-20 |
120 |
93 |
208 |
42 |
72 |
535 |
|
2020-21 |
113 |
95 |
191 |
44 |
95 |
538 |
|
2021-22 |
159 |
128 |
284 |
81 |
295 |
947 |
|
2022-23 |
257 |
144 |
318 |
68 |
324 |
1,111 |
|
2023-24 |
280 |
196 |
308 |
121 |
250 |
1,155 |
|
2024-25** |
304 |
195 |
297 |
236* |
112 |
1,145 |
|
2025-26** |
255 |
173 |
230 |
134* |
83 |
874 |
*Emergency, TEE candidates, and other mechanisms
**2024-25 and 2025-26 figures from CCRE’s annual report to the
Colorado Department of Higher Education, Sept. 30, 2026.
From Slide 14 of that report: “In 2025-26, rural/small rural districts and BOCES had a total of 1,380 openings and a total shortage of 874 teachers—well above the state average.” [vi]
 |
National picture (2012-23 to 2022-23) - "sobering news"
Declining enrollment and completion
in teacher preparation programs
(From the most recent report by AACTE: “2025 Data Update: Teacher Preparation Program Trends.”[vii])
Finally, data from the 2025 national report by AACTE. The overall picture, though less distressing than we see in Colorado, still presents what AACTE calls “sobering news.” Colorado is not alone in showing significant declines in enrollment in our teacher preparation programs. Chart 11 shows similar declining numbers in several states. But Chart 12 reveals that a few states have managed to buck this trend. They send an encouraging message to Colorado: if we make this issue a priority, we can arrest our declining numbers.
Enrollment – a 10-year decline
Enrollment
in Comprehensive[viii]
programs - from 611,296 to 407,556 - a decline of 33%
From AACTE Report: (All
bold is mine)
“After precipitously declining during
the first half of the 2010s, total enrollment in teacher preparation programs
stabilized in recent years at approximately 600,000 teacher candidates annually
… enrollment in IHE-based comprehensive programs declined by one-third.”
“Notably,
after growing slightly in recent years, enrollment in comprehensive teacher
preparation programs fell in 2022-23 to the lowest level recorded.”
“When AACTE announced that enrollment had
increased [in 2020-21], we cautioned that this positive sign might be a
short-lived ‘blip’ in the data, and it appears that this caution was justified.
However, it is also possible that this year’s declines may also be
temporary, a delayed impact of the pandemic.”
COMMENT – Nation vs. Colorado: That
national increase in 2020-21 contrasts with a significant decline, that same
year, in Colorado (see charts 1 and 2), Overall and in Traditional programs.
And AACTE’s look ahead, “it is also possible that this year’s declines [in 2022-23] may also be temporary,” proved too optimistic, for Colorado anyway. The following year (2023-24), the numbers enrolling and completing programs in Colorado continued to decline (again, charts 1 and 2), especially in Traditional programs.
Completion
 |
Completion
Overall - during this decade, a drop of 43,766 –
a decline of 23%.
Comprehensive programs
– an even greater drop of 50,938 - a decline of 31%.
From AACTE report:
“Trends in program completion largely mimic
trends in enrollment, with a few notable exceptions. After declining in the
first part of the decade, the number of candidates completing comprehensive
programs stabilized during the pandemic before declining again in 2022-23.”
COMMENT – Nation vs. Colorado. Similar
to national trends, Colorado did see an increase in completion after the “year
of Covid” (2019-20), up to 2,737 in 2020-21 and 2,704 in 2021-22. But it has
plunged since then, to 2,193 in 2023-24. (See chart 2.)
From
AACTE’s Summary
“This data
update contains sobering news for teacher preparation programs. Until this
year, enrollment and completions had stabilized, and even grew modestly during
the pandemic, but both have once again declined.”
8 states - From AACTE
report* – Colorado is hardly alone in seeing this decline …
*AACTE Data Dashboard - https://aacte.org/aacte-dashboard/
… but from 2015 to 2023, the numbers in several states held steady, or even improved.
**
In
light of this data, several questions:
How concerned are we about these trends? How
should we define the situation? Is it a crisis? For our rural school districts,
it sure looks like one. AV #306 is written in the hope that, crisis or not, we can
recognize the severity of the problem, one that we must address.
|
Next steps? See the proposed short- and long-term solutions in CCRE’s annual report, and how it sees the state’s role in addressing our teacher shortage. Endnotes.[ix] |
If current trends continue, what is the likely
outcome for our schools and our students? Even if we enroll fewer students in
the years ahead, what will be the impact on our ability to offer all of them a quality
education?
A
more thorough report than this would explore the leadership we see on this
issue from the Colorado Department of Education, the State Board of Education,
the Colorado legislature, and the Governor. Last spring budget constraints led
to a conflict between the Governor’s office and the Joint Budget Committee on whether
to fund two of the strongest efforts addressing the teacher shortages.[x]
Will our new Governor recognize the gravity of the problem and urge policymakers
to do more?
A stronger analysis would also ask how the
state’s traditional teacher preparation programs are responding? Can they find components
essential to the (increasingly popular) alternative licensure programs worth
adopting in their own design?
We would also ask what Colorado can learn
from other states that do not see such a precipitous decline in the numbers
enrolling and completing their traditional preparation programs.
**
Reader, do you, too, find the trends deeply
troubling?
If so, what more can we do to sound
the alarm, and act, before we create a situation where 24 students walk into a
classroom - only to find they have no teacher?
Endnotes
[i] “Adams 12 to close six
schools at the end of the academic year,” by Rae Solomon, Colorado
Public Radio, Oct. 8, 2026. https://www.cpr.org/2026/10/08/adams-12-school-closures/
[ii] “Colorado
Educator Preparation Programs and the Educator Population,” CCHE and CDE, Dec.
2022.
https://cdhe.colorado.gov/sites/highered/files/documents/EPP%20Report%20Dec%202022.pdf
[iii]
“Educator Shortage Survey Results,” CDE,
https://ed.cde.state.co.us/educatortalent/researchandimpact/educator-shortage-survey-results
[iv]
Ibid, CDE.
[v]
“The Colorado Center for Rural Education: Mitigating the Teacher
Shortage in Colorado,” by Joey Laurx, Robert Fulton, and Rosanne Fulton. Journal of Educational Research and Innovation,
Volume 12, 2024, https://digscholarship.unco.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1146&context=jeri
More
excerpts from this report:
Colorado problem (Bold mine)
In Colorado,
rural and small rural districts, along with the BOCES that serve them, continue
to experience challenges recruiting qualified educators for classroom teachers,
school leaders, and special services providers. … In the state 147 of 178
districts are rural or small rural with nearly 150,000 PK-12 students …. the
percentage of Colorado’s unfilled positions is two times higher in rural
districts than it is in non-rural districts. During the 2022-23 academic
year, 8% of teacher positions were unfilled in rural Colorado districts,
compared to 4% in non-rural districts.
“ …
Colorado’s teacher shortage is acute in rural and small rural districts where
they do not have enough teachers in all content areas (e.g., mathematics and
science) and all special services provider areas (e.g., counselors and nurses).
“Currently,
Colorado colleges and universities do not graduate the number of educators
needed each year.”
[vi] “Rural Teacher Development —Advancing Systems to Unify Postsecondary Education and the PK-12 Educator Workforce,” Annual Report to the Colorado Department of Higher Education, by Robert Fulton, PhD, CCRE Director, September 30, 2026. CCRE's website: https://www.unco.edu/ebs/centers-institutes/rural-education/
[vii]
AACTE’s “2025 Data Update: Teacher Preparation
Program Trends,” by Jacqueline King and Chen-Su Chen (Sept 2025) - https://aacte.org/report/2025-data-update-teacher-preparation-program-trends/)
[viii]
Comprehensive programs. From AI: “In AACTE (American Association of Colleges for Teacher Education) and
federal Title II reporting, a comprehensive program is a traditional
college or university pathway tied to an education degree with extensive
student teaching, while an alternative program allows candidates holding
a bachelor's degree in another field to become teachers of record while
finishing licensure requirements.” (Source - Center for American Progress, https://www.americanprogress.org/article/the-alternative-teacher-certification-sector-outside-higher-education/)
[ix] From
“Rural Teacher Development —Advancing Systems to Unify Postsecondary Education
and the PK-12 Educator Workforce,” Annual Report to the Colorado Department of
Higher Education, by Robert Fulton, PhD, CCRE Director, September 30, 2026.
Short-term solutions
·
Provide targeted incentives for teacher
candidates and current teachers
·
Consider temporary changes to licensure and
initial certification policies
·
Build long-term substitute pool and incentives
for retired teachers
·
Build staff capacity to provide targeted
supports and high-quality instruction
Long-term solutions
·
Collect and publish information on teacher
vacancies and turnover
·
Ensure safe, responsive working conditions for
teachers and staff
·
Provide connected professional learning
(embedded, ongoing, practical training that improves daily classroom work)
·
Increase compensation and teacher pay
[x] As Erica Breunlin of The Colorado
Sun reported last spring, “Colorado’s rural teacher pipeline
programs will likely skirt funding cuts in state budget,” cuts proposed last winter by Gov.
Jared Polis would have eliminated two programs tackling this problem.[x]
Fortunately, the Joint Budget Committee opposed the Governor’s plan and
preserved the funding.
Breunlin
reported on impressive steps being taken by two of Colorado’s teacher
preparation programs. She featured the work of Robert
Fulton at the Center for Rural Education and Christine McConnell, director of
the Colorado Teacher Cadet program, “to prop up the
state’s teaching profession and fix a pipeline that year after year falls short
of deploying enough educators across the state.”
No comments:
Post a Comment